Those favoring the non-existent 97% consensus shows the power of 'social proof' ...but it has nothing to do with the scientific evidence
Calgary, Alberta, Canada (PRWEB) January 09, 2014
When City of Calgary Counselor Sean Chu posted a comic tweet on the irony of climate change scientists stuck in Antarctic ice, and joked about global warming while in a deep-freeze, he hit a nerve. The comment section of newspapers, the Huffington Post and blogs quickly populated with hundreds of comments for and against. Friends of Science report that no attention was paid to recently reported increasing number of extreme cold snaps in the world, reported by Dr. Madhav Khandekar published in 2013 by the Global Warming Policy Foundation of the UK.
"People have heard there is a 97% consensus on global warming. They repeat this without looking at the scientific evidence," says Ken Gregory, research director for Friends of Science.
Khandekar's report notes there is an under-reported trend of more cold snaps. Solar activity has declined recently and a 'solar hibernation' is in progress, bringing with it colder temperatures.
In Antarctica, the 2013 year average sea ice area is the highest of the last 35 years of satellite measurements as reported by the Washington Post Sept. 23, 2013. It is currently 1.5 million sq. km. greater than the 30 year average.
"The Canadian climate model's 35 year predicted warming trend in the atmosphere over the tropics to 2013 was 6.9 times the actual satellite-measured warming trend," says Gregory. "This clearly showing that the warming theory has flaws, and that the comic tweet had some truth."
Friends of Science have done a detailed review of the main 'consensus' studies. The ratio of scientists who actually agree with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) temperature projections is very small. More important, the most recent IPCC report acknowledges but cannot explain why there has been a "pause" in global warming for the past 16 years as reported Sept. 08, 2013 by The Telegraph.
"Those favoring the non-existent 97% consensus shows the power of 'social proof' over scientific evidence," says Gregory. "People don't want to be the odd man out; it is related to deep psychological motivators, but it has nothing to do with the scientific evidence on global warming."
Gregory explains that the Doron & Zimmerman (2009) 'consensus' paper was reported as having a 97% consensus out of 3,147, as reported in Science Daily Jan. 21, 2009, in fact they selected only 77 'specialist' scientists (qualifications unstated) out of 3,147 respondents and reported that 75 of them, or 97.4% agreed that human activity is a 'signficant' factor in global warming.
""Significant" is a subjective term, not a scientific one," explains Gregory. "and a far cry from the IPCC's definition."
MK Zimmerman published the numerous emails from respondents who complained about the survey's 'opinion poll' design being unsuitable for a scientific topic.
Andrew Montford thoroughly decimated the Cook et al (2013) study in his report "Consensus? What Consensus" published by the Global Warming Policy Foundation. Cook's study of 12,000 climate paper abstracts arrived at a 97% figure by including any paper that only implied that human activity has some unspecified affect on climate.
"This means the study is meaningless," says Gregory. "Even climate skeptics agree that humans and CO2 have some effect on climate; we disagree on the IPCC's claim that human activity caused 90% of the recent warming."
Gregory points out that only 65 papers, or 0.5% of the Cook study suggest that humans cause more than 50% of the warming (a ratio much lower than the IPCC's).
An August 2013 review by Dr. David Legates of the abstracts used in the Cook study found only 41 out of the 11,944 climate papers explicitly stated that human activity caused more than 50% of the warming since 1950. This represents only 0.34% of the papers, contrary to the 97% 'consensus' claim.
"We've spent $1.6 trillion over 12 years world-wide ineffectively trying to reduce carbon dioxide emissions, which continue to rise. Global warming, meanwhile, stopped in 1998," says Gregory.
Gregory says, "Should we not also be prepared for global cooling, especially in northern latitudes like Canada. In light of current cold snaps, shouldn't this be a rational part of public debate?"
Friends of Science off free, comprehensive climate science information on-line.
Friends of Science have spent a decade reviewing a broad spectrum of literature on climate change and have concluded the sun is the main drier of climate change, not carbon dioxide (CO2). The core group of the Friends of Science is made up of retired earth and atmospheric scientists.
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