APT Index Reports that Holiday Season Comps Decreased 1.7%

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Aggregating Real Transaction Data From Over 50,000+ Locations Across the Nation, APT Index is Most Definitive, Accurate Analysis of 2013 Holiday Shopping Season. Best Performing Top 25 Metro Was Tampa, FL, Worst Performing Metro Was New York City.

Applied Predictive Technologies (APT) today announced the results of an analysis of retail sales across the United States during the 2013 holiday shopping season using data from the APT Index. The APT Index shows an overall year-over-year decrease in holiday season sales of -1.7%, comparing 2013 with 2012. Furthermore, the Index demonstrates the significant impact that temperature and other variables had on the holiday shopping period.

The APT Index includes a subset of APT’s $2 trillion in sales data –$1 of every $5 of retail sales— aggregating data from sales registers at over 50,000+ locations across the US to show how year-over-year performance changes for same store sales in the physical channel for retail. The APT Index examined the holiday shopping season from November 6th through December 24th 2013, as compared to the same time last year.

Unlike other sources, which use consumer survey data, the APT Retail Index is based on reported sales data, allowing APT to make statistically significant observations about sales trends. As a result, the APT Retail Index provides the most definitive and accurate retail sales analysis available.

The APT Index – by the numbers:

The big picture

  •     Overall sales: -1.7%
  •     Number of transactions: -3.2%
  •     Average value of transactions: +1.6%

Looking beyond the national averages, the APT Retail Index shows that there was a wide variation in holiday retail sales trends across the country. The weather, the local economic environment, and the types of individuals living in a particular region significantly, and in some cases dramatically, impacted retail sales.

Impact of the temperature on retail sales

  •     In areas that on average were colder than 40°F, sales dropped -2.6%
  •     In areas that on average were between 40°F and 60°F, sales dropped -1.5%
  •     In areas that on average were warmer than 60°F, sales rose by 0.8%

Impact of household income

  •     In areas with an average annual income of less than $75,000, sales dropped -1.3%
  •     In areas with an average annual income of more than $75,000, sales dropped -2.0%

[All figures are a Year over Year same-store comparison between 2013 and 2012]

The best-performing Top 25 metro areas in the US, based on change in comp sales included
Tampa, FL (up 2.3%); Riverside, CA (up 2.0%); Houston, TX (up 1.8%). The areas that saw some of the largest decreases in performance, year-over-year, included New York, NY (-6.0%); Baltimore (-5.5%); and Philadelphia (-4.4%).

Anthony Bruce, CEO of APT, said, “We are excited to be able to provide the industry’s most definitive retail comp data for the 2013 holiday shopping season using the APT Index, at the macro level as well as for each local market.”

Bruce added, “The APT Index shows how small changes in factors like the weather can dramatically impact store comps. It is therefore critical for retailers to understand how much of a store’s performance is due to controllable actions and how much is a result of circumstances in a store’s local area. The APT Index is one of the most robust and accurate ways for retailers to answer questions, such as: What should any given store’s performance be, based on how nearby stores are doing? How can we determine if some stores are really over- or under-performing, or if their performance is due to what’s happening in their local area? How do we perform compared to surrounding stores when we run a national ad campaign? We are seeing a lot of excitement among retailers in using the APT Index to answer these and other mission critical questions.”

For more information, visit: http://www.predictivetechnologies.com. Or to schedule a briefing at NRF, please visit us Booth 1655:

About APT
APT is the world’s largest purely cloud-based predictive analytics software company. APT’s Test & Learn software is revolutionizing the way Global 2000 companies harness their Big Data to accurately measure the profit impact of pricing, marketing, merchandising, operations, and capital initiatives, tailoring investments in these areas to maximize ROI. APT’s client portfolio includes Walmart, Staples, Lowe’s, SunTrust, Hilton Hotels, and others. APT has offices in Washington, D.C., San Francisco, London, Taipei and Tokyo. Visit http://www.predictivetechnologies.com to learn more.

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Cathy Baker
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