Investments management specialist Jeff Voudrie believes that the market is in an entirely new era. If that is true, then gauging a fund over even 15 years is worthless if the rules have changed completely.
Johnson City, TN (PRWEB) January 27, 2014
The recent Wall Street Journal article on January 3rd, 2014, “How to Lose Money in the Market in a Hurry,” (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/how-to-lose-money-in-the-market-in-a-hurry-2014-01-03) argues that previous 15 year’s statistics should be used to predict the next year’s hottest funds. Investments management specialist Jeff Voudrie warns that today’s market environment may be very different from what occurred in the past. “How to Lose Money in the Market in a Hurry,” argues that previous 15 year’s statistics should be used to predict the next year’s hottest funds. Investments management specialist Jeff Voudrie warns that today’s market environment may be very different from what occurred in the past.
In the article, Mark Hulbert wrote, “The evidence is that last year’s top performers will lag the market in 2014—if not lose a lot of money.” Hulbert backed up his claim with solid statistical evidence, then advised: “You would do much better to focus on performance over far longer periods than the past 12 months. While there is no magical track-record length on which you should always focus, 15 years is a good rule of thumb. The past 15 years—from the beginning of 1999 through the end of last year—encompass two powerful bull markets and two crushing bear markets.”
That’s precisely why Jeff Voudrie, a financial planner in Tennessee and president of Common Sense Advisors, believes that the market is in an entirely new era. If that is true, then gauging a fund over even 15 years is worthless if the rules have changed completely.
“The underlying assumption is that over longer periods of time, markets will produce results similar to what they have done in the past,” Voudrie, the investments management specialist points out. “Almost the entire financial planning industry is built on this concept.
The belief is that since we can’t predict the future we should assume that the past will repeat,” he adds.
Yet, if the market is in an entirely new era, then old patterns no longer apply. Counsel like that from Hulbert “presupposes that the era we are in is similar to what occurred the last 30 years.” Citing the massive change in economies, incomes and personal lifestyle that mimic those brought about by the Industrial Revolution, Voudrie says, “If today’s financial planning model and typical approach to investing was used early in the Industrial Revolution would have failed investors because it would have been based on the hand-made era that no longer existed.”
Voudrie thinks that, given the erratic pattern of the market over the past decade and the explosion of the Internet and related technologies, we are indeed in a time of unprecedented and rapid change, with a dire need for a new perspective. “I believe we are moving from one era to another,” he says. “The era that most of today’s retired investors experienced their entire working careers (1950 to 2000) is one that we may never experience again. Then, it was a time of slow, continuous and somewhat predictable change. Now, we are in an era of fast, discontinuous change. Change happens much more quickly and is much more difficult to predict.”
The takeaway for the retired investor who wants to grow a reasonable nest egg? “Investors need to be wary of the same-old advice given by the financial services industry, which has a vested interest in maintaining the status quo. We may be embarking on an extended period where interest rates increase and bonds may no longer provide the defensive aspect they have historically in portfolio construction.”
In laymen’s terms, investors need to entrust their money to a money manager that understands this new era who will pay extremely close attention to market shifts. Voudrie has actually patented a software system that is designed to do precisely that--responding quickly to market changes, taking steps to minimize losses before a market free-falling while doggedly pursuing opportunities for growth. Such an approach can grow a fund much better than 15-year performance records from a bygone era, Voudrie concludes.
A financial services industry veteran with more than 20 years’ experience, Jeff Voudrie is a new breed of private money manager. Using sophisticated electronic monitoring and software, combined with his 20 years’ experience as a money manager, Jeff works with you to create a personal investments management portfolio that reflects your lifestyle goals and risk tolerance. He specializes in stable growth and prudent profits while applying a robust, patented risk management processes. When you work with Jeff, you have the security of knowing that your life savings is getting the attention it deserves.
Jeff Voudrie, a financial planner in Johnson City, TN has been interviewed by The Wall Street Journal, CBS MarketWatch, The London Financial Times and the Christian Science Monitor. He is a former syndicated newspaper columnist and the author of two ground-breaking books: How Successful Investors Tripled the Return of the S&P 500 and Why Variable Annuities Don’t Work the Way You Think They Work. He accepts a limited number of new clients in his personal investments management practice. He and his wife Julie live with their seven children in Johnson City, TN. He is heavily involved in his local church and has done missionary work in Hungary and Cambodia.
Common Sense Advisors
105 Keeview Court
Johnson City, TN 37615