American Institute for Economic Research Releases Study on Affordable Care Act

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Study shows wide variation in effects on health insurance costs from Affordable Care Act.

“We conducted this study to provide Americans with an objective, non-partisan analysis of how the law will affect them," said Stephen Adams, President of AIER.

The American Institute for Economic Research (AIER) has released a new study on the Affordable Care Act that finds that approximately 230 million people, about 70% of the U.S. population, will see very little change in their premiums due to the Affordable Care Act. These are mostly individuals who are covered by employer-sponsored health insurance or public assistance programs.

However, many of those who purchase insurance on the individual market and the uninsured are likely to see significant changes in premium costs.

AIER estimates that more than 50 million people will likely face higher premiums, while more than 30 million will likely see lower or very low premiums.

“The Affordable Care Act is one of the most confusing and controversial pieces of legislation in years,” said Stephen Adams, President of AIER. “We conducted this study to provide Americans with an objective, non-partisan analysis of how the law will affect them. The good news for most people is that the ACA will have little effect on their costs or coverage, at least in the near term. But, for those who are affected, it’s important to have an unbiased understanding of what might change.”

AIER also estimates that nearly 6 million people will fall into the Medicaid gap, a quirk in the law created when 25 states declined to expand national eligibility standards for Medicaid. This gap includes people with incomes that are too low to be eligible for subsidies under the ACA, but are too high to qualify for Medicaid in their state.

The study provides an analysis of how the law will change insurance costs and a guide to how it will affect people in each health insurance group.

“Implementation of important parts of the law has been delayed, so it’s hard to predict the law’s impacts with any precision,” Adams added. “It’s unknown how many employers will stop offering plans because of the law, for instance, or whether enough people will sign up for individual insurance to keep premiums in check. These are some of the aspects of the law that will need to be monitored over the next few years.”

More information and complimentary electronic copies of the complete ACA analysis and a summary are available on AIER’s website at Print copies of the study are available at no cost by emailing info(at)aier(dot)org.

About the American Institute for Economic Research

The American Institute for Economic Research (AIER) conducts independent, scientific, economic research to educate individuals, thereby advancing their personal interests and those of the nation. The Institute, founded in 1933, represents no fund, concentration of wealth, or other special interests. Financial support for the Institute is provided primarily by the small annual fees from several thousand sustaining members, by receipts from sales of its publications, by tax-deductible contributions, and by the earnings of its wholly owned investment advisory organization, American Investment Services, Inc. To learn more, visit

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