Oil prices should find increasing support moving forward as the worst of the spring crude stock building is almost behind us.
New York, NY (PRWEB) April 15, 2014
NYC-based PIRA Energy Group believes that Asian oil markets remain supported. In the U.S., stocks built. In Japan, consumption tax increase depresses product demands. Specifically, PIRA’s analysis of the oil market fundamentals has revealed the following:
Asian Oil Markets Remain Supported
Oil prices should find increasing support moving forward as the worst of the spring crude stock building is almost behind us. Asian gasoline cracks should improve seasonally. Gasoil cracks should hold up with ongoing turnarounds and then higher demand, especially into 3Q.
Consumption Tax Increase Depresses Japanese Product Demands
Total commercial stocks rose 4.6 MMBbls due to a 4.9 MMBbl build in crude. Finished product stocks were modestly lower. Gasoil stocks drew for the eleventh straight week. All the major product demands fell back, as an increase in the consumption tax went into effect April 1st. That increase is likely to keep demands abnormally soft for the next couple of weeks and produce adverse demand comparisons to last April.
A Closer Look at Canadian Shale Liquids Potential
It is becoming increasingly likely that the next location of significant shale liquids growth will be Western Canada. A closer look at resource potential suggests that production volumes will substantially grow. There will be obstacles including cost pressures, water management, takeaway infrastructure limits and environmental concerns that will slow progress but none of these appear to be showstoppers.
Propane Stock Building Has Commenced
U.S. stock building occurred at a faster pace than last season, but propane inventory comparisons will remain far lower year-on-year. Propane exports will grow during the course of the year as new terminal capacity is added. Near term ethane usage is affected by a relatively high level of cracker downtime. The key development is the sharp escalation in spot international freight costs which is adversely impacting trade economics.
Ethanol Prices Plummet
U.S. ethanol prices tumbled the week ending April 4 as plant output increased sharply, enabling stocks to build for the second consecutive week. At the same time, prices had reached a high enough premium over gasoline that companies reduced the percentage of ethanol-blended fuel to the lowest level in about eight weeks.
The information above is part of PIRA Energy Group's weekly Energy Market Recap, which alerts readers to PIRA’s current analysis of energy markets around the world as well as the key economic and political factors driving those markets.
Click here for additional information on PIRA’s global energy commodity market research services.
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