APT Index: Overall April Retail Sales Comps Increase 2.5%, Driven by More Transactions and Larger Transaction Sizes

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San Antonio, TX, Charlotte, NC, and Denver, CO were the best performing cities as warmer weather helped fuel the increase. Younger people and those with less median income spending more.

Applied Predictive Technologies (APT) today announced that U.S. retail sales for the month of April increased [+2.5%] nationwide. The increase was driven by a higher number of transactions and larger transaction sizes in April 2014, as compared to April 2013.

Retail sales comps were higher in areas where temperature increased year-over-year [+3.6%] as compared to areas where temperature decreased year-over-year [+1.8%]. Areas with median age less than 35 [+4.5%] also saw a larger increase than areas with median age greater than 35 [+1.8%]. Finally, areas with median income less than $75K [+3.5%] had higher sales comps than areas with median income of $75K or greater [+2.4%].

The APT Index includes a subset of APT’s $2 trillion in sales data, or $1 of every $5 of U.S. retail sales. The Index aggregates data from sales registers at over 50,000 locations across the U.S. to show how year-over-year performance changes for same-store sales in the physical channel for retail. Unlike other sources, which use consumer survey data, the APT Index is based on reported sales data, allowing APT to make statistically significant observations about retail sales. As a result, the APT Index provides the most definitive and accurate analysis of retail sales available.

April Retail Sales – by APT Index numbers:

The big picture

  •     Overall nationwide sales: [+2.5%]
  •     Number of transactions: [+1.1%]
  •     Sales per transaction: [+1.4%]

At a more granular level, the APT Index shows that areas with certain characteristics were impacted more in April. Among these characteristics, year-over-year temperature change, median age, and median income had the largest impact.

Impact of temperature change on retail sales

  •     In areas where temperature increased year-over-year, sales increased [+3.6%].
  •     In areas where temperature decreased year-over-year, sales increased [+1.8%].

Impact of median age on retail sales

  •     In areas with median age less than 35, sales increased [+4.5%].
  •     In areas with median age greater than 35, sales increased [+1.8%].

Impact of median income on retail sales

  •     In areas with median income less than $75,000, sales increased [+3.5%].
  •     In areas with median income $75,000 or greater, sales increased [+2.4%].

Metro areas most affected

The Top 25 metro areas where retailers performed the best in April were: San Antonio, TX with a [+7.9%] increase in sales comps; Charlotte, NC with a [+6.7%] increase; and Denver, CO with a [+5.8%] increase. The areas where retailers performed the worst were: New York, NY [-0.1%], Washington, D.C. [+0.1%], and Baltimore, MD [+0.2%].

[All figures are a year-over-year, same-store comparison from April 2014 to April 2013, adjusted for consistent weekdays.]

Anthony Bruce, CEO of APT, said, “The APT Index allows us to understand how the retail economy is performing. After several months of cold weather and lower sales comps, April retail sales comps showed a substantial increase of [+2.5%].”

Bruce added, “Using the APT Index, we can provide the industry’s most definitive retail comps data at the macro level as well as for each local market. The APT Index is one of the most robust and accurate ways for retailers to answer questions such as: What should any given store’s performance be, based on how nearby stores are doing? How can we determine if some stores are really over- or under-performing, or if their performance is due to what’s happening in their local area? How do we perform compared to surrounding stores when we run a national ad campaign? We are seeing a lot of excitement among retail executives in using the APT Index to answer these and other mission critical questions.”

For more information, visit: http://www.predictivetechnologies.com.

About APT

APT is the world’s largest purely cloud-based predictive analytics software company. APT’s Test & Learn software is revolutionizing the way Global 2000 companies harness their Big Data to accurately measure the profit impact of pricing, marketing, merchandising, operations, and capital initiatives, tailoring investments in these areas to maximize ROI. APT’s client portfolio includes Walmart, Staples, Lowe’s, SunTrust, Hilton Hotels, and others. APT has offices in Washington, D.C., San Francisco, London, Taipei, and Tokyo. Visit http://www.predictivetechnologies.com to learn more.

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Cathy Baker
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