TDG: Total TV/Video Revenues To Remain Flat through 2020

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New Report from The Diffusion Group Asserts that, Despite New Distribution Platforms like TV Everywhere and VOD, TV/Video Revenue Growth Will Remain Sluggish in the Next Several Years

There will be revenue winners and losers during the next five years, but the total TV/video dollar pool will stay the same.

According to a new report from TDG, The Future of TV Monetization, total TV and video revenue over the next five years will be much like the previous five years in terms of inflation-adjusted dollars, running primarily flat. Overall TV and video spending has seen minor growth since 2004, rising from $195 billion (2013 dollars) to $213 billion in 2013. This constitutes an increase of only 9% during a 10-year period, equivalent to a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of only +1%.

According to Bill Niemeyer, Senior TDG Advisor and author of the new report, since 2010 (after the worst of the 2007-09 economic downturn), growth rates of business and consumer spending for TV and video remained negligible. “Total TV and video spending rose only 3% from 2010 to 2013,” says Niemeyer.

For the purposes of this report, TDG employs a comprehensive methodology that includes transactional, subscription, and advertising revenue over a wide range of delivery platforms and consumer use cases.

While new viewing platforms including ‘TV Everywhere’ and pay-TV video-on-demand (VOD) are showing promising in-market results, they are still relatively nascent and taking shape in a business landscape known for changing very slowly. “It’s like turning a supertanker while you are rebuilding it,” says Niemeyer. “It takes a long time to take new platforms from first in-market trials to fully-realized revenue-generating ecosystems. There will be revenue winners and losers during the next five years, but the total TV/video dollar pool will stay the same.”

According to Niemeyer, “Even as they implement ‘TV Everywhere’ and VOD, operators and content providers have to make key decisions now about going forward on new advanced techniques and technologies. These will be critical for long term growth, but will not begin to generate significant revenues until after 2020.”

Bill Niemeyer has worked in the in the world of TV and advertising since 1999 across both legacy and broadband platforms. Bill served previously as Chief of Analysis & Research at BlackArrow and was part of the executive team with interactive TV technology firm Spiderdance. He is a member of the Academy of Television Arts and Sciences.

The Future of TV Monetization analyzes the historical TV/Video revenues for subscription, transactional, and advertising, as well as what the future holds for the monetization of TV programming. It also discusses in-market platforms such as ‘TV Everywhere’ and VOD that have the capacity to contribute to TV and video revenue over the next five years, and significantly past 2020.

For more information about this report and its contents, please contact sales(at)tdgresearch(dot)com.

About TDG Research
TDG provides actionable intelligence on the quantum market shifts impacting consumer technology and media behavior. Since 2004, our market research and advisory services have helped technology vendors, media companies, and service providers understand how consumers access, navigate, distribute, and consume broadband media -- whenever and wherever they may be. For more information, visit our website at http://www.tdgresearch.com.

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Wendy Stockard
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