Dallas, Texas (PRWEB) July 18, 2014
Steve Roemerman, CEO of Lone Star Analysis, spoke on the topic of “Standard Setting War Stories” at the Probability Management Standards Committee Meeting at the at the Catamaran Resort in San Diego, CA, July 7th and 8th.
“It was a huge honor to be on the same slate as this group. Probability Management is serious about setting truly open standards for data sharing. We are pleased we can help support that goal, which matters for Big Data, for Decision Science, and for many other fields,” Roemerman said.
Probability Management is hosting two innovations, the Stochastic Information Packet (SIP™) and easy to use, open source tools making probabilistic math as easy as arithmetic. SIPs and SIPMath™ are being used by government agencies in the U.S. and Canada, and by major corporations, such as Chevron, Lockheed Martin, Wells Fargo, and others. The standard is gaining momentum.
It boils down to replacing single number forecasts with a data vectors capturing ranges of possible data values. These “uncertainties” may then be plugged into models, forecasts, simulations or business plans and manipulated just like numbers to quantify risks and uncertainty through interactive simulation.
The open standard advances the field by representing uncertainties as unambiguous data, which may be shared across platforms. Now, bare spreadsheets and other applications can sum uncertainty across the enterprise while providing an audit trail.
Probability management is a potential cure for a problem called “The Flaw of Averages.” It describes the systematic errors that occur when people forecast an uncertain quantity with a single number, usually the average of all possible outcomes. But it turns out that plans based on average assumptions are wrong on average, and unfortunately, this problem pervades nearly every profession, business, institution and household.
About Probability Management, Inc.
Probability Management, Inc. is a non-profit organization with 501(c)(3) tax-exempt status in the United States promoting the communication of uncertainty through education, best practices, and its open SIPmath™ standard, which represents probability distributions as auditable data. Its purpose is the promotion and development of the probability management discipline using proven computer simulation techniques.
About Lone Star
Lone Star Analysis is a trusted provider of enhanced decision analysis, business modeling and simulation, and executive advisory support. Lone Star is committed to delivering improved operational and financial performance, as well as reduced cost and risk, through accurate and actionable answers to clients’ most critical strategic and tactical challenges. Headquartered in Dallas, Texas, Lone Star provides support to clients in the Government, Aerospace & Defense, Oil & Gas, Communications, Media and Technology markets.