Brazilian Elections 2014 - The Gap Closes, or Does it?

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With the first round of voting for the presidential elections in Brazil scheduled to take place on October 6, Liquid Investments focus attention on the campaign and provides pointers about the eventual outcome

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Our belief is that a change in president will give Brazil the opportunity to raise its geopolitical profile to one more befitting its economic and geopolitical importance

Only two weeks remain before the first round of the 2014 Brazilian presidential elections on October 6. No candidate is expected to receive 50% of the vote, so the second runner up will be eliminated before voting progresses to the second round on October 26. James Duckworth, Chief of Research at Liquid Investments, considers which candidate will likely be eliminated, who will advance to the second round and what the implications will be for the Brazil during the course of the next few years.

Incumbent Dilma Rousseff from the Workers Party, challengers Marina Silva from the Socialist Party (PSB) and Aécio Neves of the Brazilian Social Democracy Party (PDSB) are the three main candidates running in one of the world’s largest democratic elections. There are two significant points for election watchers to consider:

1. The importance of this election for the country. The result will set the tone for Brazil over the next decade; it will allow the country to set about the issues resulting from a difficult economic climate as well as some specific domestic issues. Our belief is that a change in president will give Brazil the opportunity to raise its geopolitical profile to one more befitting its economic and geopolitical importance. To learn more about our investment opportunities in Brazil, please refer to our Why Agri, Why Brazil, Why Now report.

2. No candidate will win the election outright on October 6. The gap between both main candidates has narrowed sufficiently for supporters of both parties to believe they have everything to play for in the second round. The latest polls show that Rousseff has recovered lost ground, and factoring in a statistical margin of error she will be in a dead head with her key rival following the second round run-off on October 26.

Investors have noticed. The Brazilian Real has been weakening due to the uncertain outcome of the elections and also the result of profit taking after a very strong performance so far in 2014.

At Liquid Investments we believe that the desire for change will prove too strong a draw across the country and that Silva will emerge victorious. The withdrawal of Neves, either through elimination in the first round or voluntarily, should allow Silva to pick up many of his supporters in the second round.

For further information regarding projects and solutions offered by Liquid Investments, visit our website. If you would like to get in contact with one of our investment consultants, please email or request a callback.

Note to Editors:
Liquid Investments is a provider of global investment solutions allowing institutional and private investors the opportunity to accumulate wealth through safe and secure alternative investments in emerging markets.

The investment process developed by Liquid is driven by ‘Liquid Investment Theory’ (LIT). We offer products that deliver a consistently higher level of returns to a wide variety of end-user markets. If you are interested to learn more, please refer to our strategy.

Founded in 2006, the organisation is headquartered in Knightsbridge, London and with an office in Fortaleza, Brazil.

For further information:
Jayshree Badham, Chief Marketing Officer – Jayshree(dot)Badhan(at)liquid-investments(dot)com

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