Braley Holds Narrow Lead in Iowa

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Today, The Lukens Company released a new poll indicating Democrat Bruce Braley holds a narrow lead over Republican Joni Ernst – by a slim margin of 39.3% to 37.9%.

Similar to a poll we recently conducted in North Carolina, the winner of this race is the candidate who will convince undecided voters to vote for them.

Today, The Lukens Company released a new poll indicating Democrat Bruce Braley holds a narrow lead over Republican Joni Ernst – by a slim margin of 39.3% to 37.9%.

The online poll of 1,000 likely voters was conducted between October 4th and October 7th. Braley’s lead is well within the margin of error (3.1%), and a large number of respondents (21.2%) remain undecided, painting a picture of a volatile race that could very well go either way.

“This race remains tight,” said John Morey, President of Polling & Research for The Lukens Company. “Similar to a poll we recently conducted in North Carolina, the winner of this race is the candidate who will convince undecided voters to vote for them.” According to Morey, the poll indicates Braley has an advantage on the economy, education, and climate change issues. Ernst’s advantages lie in national security, national deficit, taxes and immigration. Morey continued, “Though each candidate has strength in their party’s policies, issues that undecided voters are most likely to base their vote on include the economy, health care, national security, education, and changing Washington. The winner of this election will likely convince undecided voters that they are the candidate that can address these issues best.”

Ernst communications campaigns have been effective. “In every single media outlet, voters who can recall seeing campaign ads are backing Ernst. She maintains four to seven point advantages in television, mail, and radio. Braley is narrowly winning the digital advertising battle,” observed Seth Colton, Vice President of The Lukens Company. Colton continued, “Ernst should maintain current communication efforts and begin to focus on issues that are important to undecided voters.”

Among other noteworthy findings:

  • The US Congressional races are in a dead heat with 36.1% likely to vote for Republicans and 36.1% likely to vote for Democrats. There is a similar distribution in the statewide House and Senate races.
  • President Obama’s favorability is low, but not as low as compared to some national polls. His favorable rating is 40.1% compared to 51.9% of voters who rate him unfavorable.

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Morey Group, a division of The Lukens Company polled 1,000 likely voters from October 4 to October 7. The margin of error for the survey is +/- 3.1%. Interviews for the poll were conducted online using a census matching sample. Morey Group has conducted telephone and online polls “side-by-side”, which has indicated stronger accuracy among online polls as more than 50% of households do not use a land-based telephone.

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John Morey
Morey Group
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