APT Index: Lower Unemployment Supports Positive Retail Sales Comps, with October Same-Store Sales Up [+1.3%] or $3.9 Billion

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Data from the APT Index showed that retail sales increased [+1.3%] year-over-year in October 2014.

Applied Predictive Technologies (APT) today announced that U.S. same-store retail sales were up [+1.3%]* in October, or $3.9 billion**, according to data from the APT Index and historical U.S. census data. The APT Index showed that Americans spent $299 billion** at retail stores during the month. APT Index sales comps were higher in areas where unemployment decreased, complementing the recent Labor Department report of lower month-over-month unemployment in October.

Anthony Bruce, CEO of APT, said, “The APT Index allows us to understand performance of the overall economy as well as local markets. In October, APT Index retail sales were up 1.3%, and were even more positive in areas with lower unemployment. As we head into the holiday season, the APT Index has been reporting positive comps for the past four months.”

Bruce added, “To truly understand store performance, retail organizations must take into account how the local area surrounding their stores is performing. Using the APT Index, executives can evaluate a store’s sales against sales in the area immediately surrounding that store. Because the APT Index uses actual sales data from nearby registers, it is one of the most robust and accurate ways for executives to answer important questions about consumer behavior, manager rewards, performance goals, and many other areas.”

October Retail Sales – by APT Index numbers:

Nationwide APT Index retail sales were up [+1.3%] in October, driven by an increase in dollars per transaction [+2.2%]. Performance was better in areas with lower unemployment and lower income.

Jobs Help Boost Retail Sales

  •     In areas where unemployment improved by at least 1 percentage point year-over-year, retail sales increased [1.6%]
  •     In areas where unemployment did not improve by 1 percentage point year-over-year, retail sales increased [0.7%]

Lower Income Consumers Moving the Needle

  •     In areas with median income below $75K, retail sales increased [1.9%]
  •     In areas with income above $75K, retail sales increased [0.8%]

While performance was strong overall, October retail sales varied among the Top 25 metro areas. The metro areas where the APT Index showed retailers performing the best were: San Antonio, TX with a [+3.3%] sales increase; Houston, TX [+3.3%]; and Detroit, MI [+2.9%]. The areas where the APT Index showed retailers performing the worst were: Minneapolis, MN [-2.9%], San Francisco, CA [-1.1%], and Seattle, WA [-1.0%].

The APT Index includes a subset of APT’s $2 trillion in annual sales data. The Index aggregates data from sales registers at over 65,000 locations across the U.S. to show how year-over-year performance changes for same-store sales in the physical channel. Unlike other sources, the APT Index is based on reported sales data, allowing APT to make statistically significant observations about retail sales. As a result, the APT Index provides the most definitive and accurate analysis of retail sales available.

*All figures are a year-over-year, same-store comparison from October 2014 to October 2013, adjusted for consistent weekdays.

**Dollar figures are calculated by applying APT Index percentage change in sales to October 2013 U.S. census retail sales data (“Retail Trade excluding Auto” category).

For more information, visit: http://www.predictivetechnologies.com.

About APT
APT is the world’s largest purely cloud-based predictive analytics software company. APT’s Test & Learn software is revolutionizing the way Global 2000 companies harness their Big Data to accurately measure the profit impact of pricing, marketing, merchandising, operations, and capital initiatives, tailoring investments in these areas to maximize ROI. APT’s client portfolio includes Walmart, Staples, Lowe’s, SunTrust, Hilton Hotels, and others. APT has offices in Washington, D.C., San Francisco, Bentonville, London, Taipei, and Tokyo. Visit http://www.predictivetechnologies.com to learn more.

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