Thanksgiving and Black Friday Preliminary Read: APT Index Shows Same-Store Retail Sales Decrease [-5.8%], Based on Actual Data from Sales Registers

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Positive November sales comps leading up to Thanksgiving suggest consumers may have been beginning their holiday shopping earlier.

Applied Predictive Technologies (APT) today announced that in-store sales from Thanksgiving Day through Black Friday were down [-5.8%]*, according to a preliminary read based on the APT Index of U.S. same-store retail sales. Data from the APT Index suggests that consumers began their holiday shopping earlier this year, as November sales comps were positive leading into the holiday.

Patrick O’Reilly, APT President & COO, said, “Compared with other sources that use consumer survey data, we believe the APT Index is the first available source of actual retail sales for Black Friday this year. Based on data from sales registers across the nation, we’re seeing an overall decrease in sales for the two-day period of Thanksgiving and Black Friday. Positive sales comps leading into the holiday indicate that shoppers may have been preparing for the holidays earlier this year.”

Thanksgiving and Black Friday Retail Sales – by APT Index numbers:

The nationwide APT Index of same-store retail sales indicated that sales decreased [-5.8%] from Thanksgiving Day through Black Friday, driven by a decrease in number of transactions [-5.9%]. Dollars per transaction, or transaction size, was relatively flat according to the APT Index. Overall sales performance was worse in the Northeast–an area that experienced poor weather conditions during those two days.

The APT Index also showed that consumers may have started their holiday shopping earlier this year. The week before Thanksgiving had positive sales comps of [+3.0%]**, and sales comps for November leading into the holiday were [+2.0%]***.

Further, the APT Index indicated that sales for Thanksgiving Day and Black Friday varied among the Top 25 metro areas. The metro areas where the APT Index showed retailers performing the best were: Riverside, CA with a [+3.6%] sales increase; Los Angeles, CA [+3.5%]; and Denver, CO [+3.3%]. The areas where the APT Index showed retail sales performing the worst were: Minneapolis, MN [-12.3%], St. Louis, MO [-11.4%], and Boston, MA [-10.8%].

The APT Index includes a subset of APT’s $2 trillion in annual sales data. The Index aggregates data from sales registers across the U.S. to show how year-over-year performance changes for same-store sales in the physical channel. Unlike other sources, the APT Index is based on actual sales data, allowing APT to make statistically significant observations about retail sales. As a result, we believe the APT Index provides the most definitive and accurate analysis of retail sales available.

*All figures are a year-over-year, same-store comparison from Thanksgiving Day through Black Friday (11/27/14-11/28/14 to 11/28/13-11/29/13).

**All figures are a year-over-year, same-store comparison for the week before Thanksgiving (11/16/14-11/22/14 to 11/17/13-11/23/13).

***All figures are a year-over-year, same-store comparison for the weeks in November leading into Thanksgiving (11/2/14-11/22/14 to 11/3/13-11/23/13).

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About APT
APT is the world’s largest purely cloud-based predictive analytics software company. APT’s Test & Learn software is revolutionizing the way Global 2000 companies harness their Big Data to accurately measure the profit impact of pricing, marketing, menu, operations, and capital initiatives, tailoring investments in these areas to maximize ROI. APT’s client portfolio includes Walmart, Staples, Lowe’s, SunTrust, Hilton Hotels, and others. APT has offices in Washington, D.C., San Francisco, Bentonville, London, Taipei, and Tokyo. Visit to learn more.

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Cathy Baker
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