Top Markets Approach Halfway Point in Price Recovery

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Two more markets reached price peaks in May

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“With the price appreciation and strong sales occurring over spring and summer, it’s just a matter of months before more than half of the top 300 largest markets in the nation reach or exceed their highest price peaks from eight years ago.

Homes.com®, leading online real estate destination, has released its May 2015 Local Market Index, a price performance summary of repeat sales in the top 100 markets, and the companion Midsize Markets Report for the next 200 largest markets. Among the nation’s top 300 markets, 139 markets (46 percent) achieved full pricing recovery, two more than the 137 markets reported in April.

For the fifth month in a row, all markets in the top 100 increased their 3-month average index point change. San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward, CA had the largest 3-month average increase of 1.03 percent, while McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX had the smallest average 3-month increase with 0.04 percent. The 3-month average increase for all top 100 markets was 0.54 percent.

On an annual basis, all top 100 markets saw increases. Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, CO had the largest annual percent increase of 7.47 percent, while Albany-Schenectady-Troy, NY had the smallest annual percent increase of 2.13 percent. The average yearly increase for all top 100 markets was 4.52 percent.

Of the top 100 markets, those with minimal price declines have rebounded an average of 109 percent. The average rebound percentage of the moderate price decline markets is 101 percent of the prior peak price. Of the severe price decline markets, the average rebound percentage is 84 percent.

National Summary – West Lead the Rebound
Of the top-performing regions, the West again had the largest 3-month average of 1.03 percent, followed by the South at 1.02 percent. Of the bottom-performing regions, the South had the smallest 3-month average increase of 0.04 percent.

In May, 48 of the top 100 markets measured continued to show a complete price recovery -- the same number as April.

“With the price appreciation and strong sales occurring over spring and summer, it’s just a matter of months before more than half of the top 300 largest markets in the nation reach or exceed their highest price peaks from eight years ago. Full price recovery is critical for homeowners seeking to restore their lost equity after the housing crash, as well as for the economic viability of their communities,” said David Mele, president of Homes.com.

Southern Markets Lead Recovery; Midwest Takes Top Spot in Largest Markets Recovery
The South continued to dominate recovery with 23 markets, while the Midwest came in second with 10 markets.

Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, CO was once again the top market with an annual percent change of 7.47 percent, while San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward, CA came in second at 7.37 percent. The West remained dominant in annual percentage gains with nine markets seeing yearly increases. Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN had an annual percentage increase of 7.35 percent. Three markets had at least a 7 percent increase yearly, and seven markets had an annual percentage increase of at least 6 percent. Five markets are from California -- the most from a single state.

Largest Markets Summary:

  • Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX (115.17 percent rebound percentage), Austin-Round Rock, TX (113.15 percent) and Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, CO (113.04 percent) led the nation’s top 100 markets in rebound percentage in May.
  • Eight of the top ten leading rebound markets were located in the South.
  • The West was home to nine of the top ten markets achieving the greatest year-over-year price appreciation in May.

Two More Midsize Markets Rebounded in May
Duluth, MN-WI and Athens-Clarke County, GA were the newest midsize markets to rebound with rebound percentages of 100.16 percent and 100.05 percent, respectively. Dayton, OH and Richmond, VA were close to rebounding at 99.94 percent and 99.51 percent. Additionally, 91 midsize markets now have more than a 100 percent rebound, two more than April.

In May, 194 midsize markets improved over a 3-month average, while five markets remained the same and one market decreased. The five southern markets not seeing a change were in Texas and Louisiana. The lone market that decreased on a 3-month average was Elizabethtown-Fort Knox, KY. However, Wheeling, WV-OH, which had previously declined over several months, increased at 3.89 percent annually. All midsize markets increased annually.

On a yearly basis, the West reported increases in nine of the top ten markets. The remaining market came from the South -- Elizabethtown-Fort Knox, KY, which increased 7.27 percent despite the 3-month average decrease. Seven markets had at least a 7 percent increase, and three markets had at least a 6 percent increase. Colorado and Washington claimed the most top markets with three from each state. In May, the annual percent range was between 6 percent and 8 percent, similar to April.

For the second month in a row, the market with the best 3-month average in May was Grand Junction, CO, increasing by 1.15 percent. On a 3-month average, three of the top ten markets increased over 1 percent. The top ten 3-month average markets consisted of markets in the Northeast (2), Midwest (2), West (2) and South (4). The 3-month average percentage range was 0.95 percent to 1.15 percent, similar to April’s report of 0.97 percent to 1.28 percent.

Midsize Markets by Region and Division:

  • The top-performing region on a 3-month average was the West.
  • Wichita Falls, TX in the western region was the only market not seeing an increase or decrease for the 3-month average.
  • All top-performing regions increased at least 0.50% on a 3-month average.
  • The South was the only region to decrease.

To receive a comprehensive data file, including index values in every zip code within a local market, contact LocalMarketReports(at)Homes.com. To download a copy of the reports, visit press.homes.com.

About Homes.com
As one of the nation’s top online real estate destinations, Homes.com inspires consumers to dream big. From affordable houses to luxurious estates, condos, apartment rentals and more, Homes.com features more than 3 million property listings and exclusive distribution of over 20,000 apartment listings from ForRent.com in a user-friendly format, making finding your next home easy. Visitors to the Homes.com blog will find a collection of rich information and posts on DIY projects, painting, organization tips and more, providing the ultimate resource for everything home related. From finding your first apartment to buying your first home, upgrading, downsizing and everything in between, Homes.com is an inspiring and engaging partner in every phase of the home buying or renting process.

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Patty McNease
Dominion Enterprises
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