Solomon and GPMi Complete the 2016 Northern Duvernay and Tight Gas Growth Resource & Infrastructure Assessment

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Assessment provides an extended and in-depth analysis from the initial Northern Duvernay Assessment

Figure 1. Northern Duvernay Growth Assessment Area

Figure 1. Northern Duvernay Growth Assessment Area

The 2016 Northern Duvernay Assessment is a unique product that examines an important development area in the context of the overall growth in gas demand and production across Western Canada.

Solomon Natural Gas Services, a division of HSB Solomon Associates LLC (Solomon), and Gas Processing Management Inc. (GPMi) are pleased to announce the completion of their 2016 Northern Duvernay and Tight Gas Growth Resource & Infrastructure Assessment (Northern Duvernay Assessment).

The assessment examines key growth areas of the Duvernay and Montney plays in Alberta southeast of the Wapiti River, providing an extended and in-depth analysis from the initial Northern Duvernay Assessment, which was issued in 2012. The assessment area, depicted in Figure 1(^1), is made up of eight sub regions that are the basis for the detailed production and infrastructure analysis.

Assessment Deliverables
This assessment examines the Northern Duvernay growth area, forecasting gas and natural gas liquids (NGLs) from the existing reserves and the Cretaceous, Duvernay, and Montney growth plays and highlights the issues that develop as a result of a step change in natural gas and NGL production in the area. Specifically, the assessment also:

  •      Incorporates the Western Canada supply and demand forecasts for natural gas and NGLs from the Western Canada Gas Growth Resource & Infrastructure Assessment (Gas West for LNG Growth Assessment) and Western Canada NGL Growth (Impact of LNG Development) Resource & Infrastructure Assessment (NGL Growth Assessment) for the Northern Duvernay growth area. These assessments examine Duvernay and Alberta Montney growth and legacy gas, and NGL (separate forecasts for ethane, propane, butane and condensate) production to 2035 by sub region.
  •      Forecasts natural gas (raw gas and sales gas) and NGLs (theoretical, recovered, and unrecovered). Northern Duvernay growth area raw gas production will increase nearly 40% by 2035, with over three-quarters produced from the Montney and Duvernay formations. Sweet gas will account for 70% of raw gas production in 2035. Total recovered NGL production will increase over 150% by 2035, from the 2015 levels.
  •      Examines the 42 larger gas processing facilities in the area with capacity from less than 50 million cubic feet per day (MMcf/d) to nearly 700 MMcf/d. . Of these, 29 are sweet gas processing facilities, 6 are sulphur recovery facilities, and 7 are acid gas injection or acid gas flaring. Smaller facilities also play a role or impact development and were considered in aggregate.(^2)
  •      Focuses on new gas gathering and processing facilities where required, and the use of existing infrastructure where practical.
  •      Assesses the required gathering, processing, and transportation infrastructure to develop a logical case for infrastructure development, operation, and management. The analysis lays out a blueprint to utilize and optimize the existing gas gathering and processing infrastructure and to develop new area infrastructure to effectively and efficiently process growing gas and NGL production. Where infrastructure is forecast not to be directly impacted by developing the resource, the assessment analyzes and recommends repositioning scenarios that will increase processing effectiveness for existing conventional production.
  •      Examines gas and NGL takeaway infrastructure impacting the Northern Duvernay growth area to highlight the optimization required due to the developing production.(^3)

Figure 2 (Regional Gas Well Production to 2035 vs Facility Capacity) compares Base and Integrated Cases for gas processing capacity in the Northern Duvernay growth area. The Base Case is fully unconstrained development of gas processing facilities by resource developers and operators. The Integrated Case is coordinated development of gas processing facilities, which include plant consolidations, as outlined in the 2016 Northern Duvernay Assessment. If all opportunities described in the assessment are exploited, the overbuilding of gas processing capacity will not be required.

“The 2016 Northern Duvernay Assessment is a unique product that examines an important development area in the context of the overall growth in gas demand and production across Western Canada. As such, it should be a foundational analysis for a broad cross section of resource developers, facility operators, and investors,” said Bill Gwozd, P.Eng., Senior Vice President of Gas Services at Solomon. The next update of the Northern Duvernay Assessment will be in the fall of 2018.

Two earlier reports(^4), Gas West for LNG Growth, issued in December 2014, and NGL Growth Assessment, issued in February 2015, examined the supply and demand for Western Canadian natural gas and NGLs to 2035. The Montney Growth Resource & Infrastructure Assessment (Montney Growth Assessment), issued in July 2015, provides detailed analysis of supply in Montney BC and Montney Alberta northwest of the Wapiti River. Those reports focused on the impact of forecasted production growth on the pipelines and supporting infrastructure used to process and transport Western Canadian sales gas and recovered NGL. The 2016 Northern Duvernay Assessment incorporates and expands on the production forecasts from these earlier reports, applying them specifically to the Northern Duvernay growth area.

If interested in this assessment, organizations and industry professionals can contact Bill Gwozd (Solomon) by phone at +1.403.234.4299 or by email at Bill.Gwozd(at)SolomonOnline(dot)com, Bob Child (GPMi) by phone at +1.403.650.3893 or by email at Bob(at)GasProcessing(dot)com, or Bill Armstrong (GPMi) by phone at +1.403.617.8163 or by email at Bill(at)GasProcessing(dot)com.

About Solomon
HSB Solomon Associates LLC (Solomon) is the leading performance improvement company for the global energy industry. Solomon’s benchmarking and advisory solutions help customers across the energy value chain achieve operational excellence by increasing efficiency, reliability, and profitability. Solomon also provides forecasting and advice on the North American gas market. Solomon’s proprietary analytics uniquely transform data into insight for making better business decisions. Based in Dallas, TX USA, Solomon is part of The Hartford Steam Boiler Inspection and Insurance Company (HSB). Learn more at SolomonOnline.com.

About GPMi
Gas Processing Management Inc. (GPMi) is a Calgary, Alberta based consultancy that focuses on the business of energy infrastructure from the wellhead through the gas gathering and processing, sales gas, NGL, and LNG Systems. For further information about GPMi, consult their website at GasProcessing.com.

1 - © 2015 HSB Solomon Associates LLC (Solomon) – Reprinting this chart is permitted with proper credit and citation given to Solomon.
2 - The analysis specifically includes gas processing facilities and their associated gas gathering systems that have sulphur recovery, acid gas injection, and acid gas flaring capabilities with licensed raw gas design capacities greater than 40 MMcf/d and sweet gas processing facilities with design capacities greater than 50 MMcf/d.
3 - On an exception basis, the opportunity to more fully include these facilities to further optimize the developing and legacy gas could be assessed in future work within the defined area framework.
4 - In the context developed in the recently published gas and NGL product-based assessments.
5- The reports were produced by GPMi and Solomon Natural Gas Services.

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