Stratfor Forecasts Campaign Against Islamic State to Drive Global Developments in 2016

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The Islamic State, Resurgent Turkey, Russian Standoff and Terrorist Threat Beyond the Middle East Among Key Geopolitical Trends in 2016 Annual Forecast.

Intensified fighting against the Islamic State and resulting confrontations will lead to an unsettling year ahead according to Stratfor’s just released 2016 Annual Forecast. The global intelligence and advisory firm says this fight will ripple throughout an interconnected world and shape global developments in a number of ways.

“We know too well that the fight against the Islamic State is not limited to the battlefields in Syria and Iraq,” said Stratfor Vice President of Tactical Analysis Scott Stewart. “The Islamic State core will lose ground and see significant losses in 2016, but it will not be eradicated this year. And as its conventional capabilities weaken, the group will encourage more grassroots terrorist attacks against soft targets beyond the Middle East.”

The growing international campaign against the Islamic State will become increasingly complicated as well. Stratfor forecasts a resurgent Turkey becoming more assertive beyond its borders and deepening its military presence in Syria and Iraq. That move will raise the stakes as Turkey confronts old rivals, Iran and Russia. Russia, in the meantime, faces mission creep on the Syrian battlefield as it tries to draw the United States into negotiations on Ukraine and Russia’s former Soviet space.

“We’ll also see these developments shaping the future of Europe where an ongoing migrant crisis and closing of European borders will create a bottleneck of migrants in the Western Balkans, a region already rife with ethnic and religious tension,” said Stratfor Vice President for Global Analysis Reva Bhalla.

Stratfor’s 2016 Annual Forecast explores how these geopolitical trends will interconnect with cheap commodity prices, slackening consumption in China and a strengthening U.S. Dollar to shape the year ahead. Stratfor’s complete forecast is now available at

About Stratfor
Stratfor is a geopolitical intelligence firm that provides strategic analysis and forecasting to individuals and organizations around the world. By placing global events in a geopolitical framework, we give readers a strategic advantage as they work to anticipate opportunities and better understand international developments.

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Joshua Cook