NJIT Math Professor Says the Mets Are Heavily Favored to Win the National League Championship

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NJIT math professor Bruce Bukiet says the New York Mets now have an 84.1 percent chance of winning the National League Championship Series.

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NJIT math professor Bruce Bukiet says the New York Mets now have an 84.1 percent chance of winning the National League Championship Series.

At the start of the season, Bukiet had predicted that the Mets would make postseason play. And now that the Mets lead the Chicago Cubs 2-0 in the series, Bukiet says they are heavily favored to make the World Series.

Bukiet has issued predictions for each of the remaining five games in the series, largely based on the starting pitchers. For tonight’s third game in Chicago, the Mets have a 53 percent chance of winning, he says. For the next three games the Cubs have a slight statistical edge. But if it comes down to a final game seven, the Mets have a big advantage.

In game four, the Mets have a 44 percent chance against the Cubs.

In game five, the Mets have a 49 percent of winning.

In game six, the Mets have a 41 percent chance of winning.

And in game seven, the Mets have a 61 percent chance of beating the Cubs.

“It looks good for the Mets to win the National League,” says Bukiet. “I’ve been a Mets fan for 50 years and hope they win it all. After the championships I’ll review the numbers and make my predictions for the World Series.”

Bukiet updates his website often, where he provides the likelihood of each team taking the series. The numbers are revised as the probabilities change with the progression of each series.

During the season Bukiet applies his model to determine whether it is worthwhile to wager on games. His picks have led to positive results for 9 of the 15 years he has been studying baseball.

His method uses a Markov process approach, which he originally published in the journal Operations Research. The method enables one to assess prospective trades and evaluate who should win the Most Valuable Player and Cy Young Awards.

About NJIT

One of the nation’s leading public technological universities, New Jersey Institute of Technology (NJIT) is a top-tier research university that prepares students to become leaders in the technology-dependent economy of the 21st century. NJIT’s multidisciplinary curriculum and computing-intensive approach to education provide technological proficiency, business acumen and leadership skills. With an enrollment of 11,000 graduate and undergraduate students, NJIT offers small-campus intimacy with the resources of a major public research university. NJIT is a global leader in such fields as solar research, nanotechnology, resilient design, tissue engineering and cyber-security, in addition to others. NJIT ranks fifth among U.S. polytechnic universities in research expenditures, topping $110 million, and is among the top 1 percent of public colleges and universities in return on educational investment, according to Payscale.com.

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