Genscape AIS Shipping Data & Vessel Tracking Technology Identifies First Iranian Crude Vessel Leaving the Region since Lifting of Sanctions

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According to Genscape, Iranian VLCC, Serena, recently cast off from port after being removed, along with hundreds of other vessels from a sanctions list last week

“The exceptional transparency Genscape is bringing to the global refined products and maritime shipping markets is proving its weight in gold with this unfolding Iranian situation,” said Dominick Chirichella, Founding Partner, Energy Management Institute.

Following the January 16, 2016, lifting of sanctions on Iran’s oil transactions by Europe and the United States, there are possible changes ahead. According to Genscape, the Iranian VLCC tanker, Serena (IMO 9569645), was recently cast off from the port of Assaluyeh after being moored there for more than a year, and is expected to arrive in Uslan, South Korea, on February 11, 2016. This tanker is among hundreds of vessels which were removed from a sanctions list in recent days.

The lifting of sanctions removed many of the bans that had been limiting Iran’s activity related to the import, purchase, swap, and transportation of oil, gas, and petroleum products, some of the main sources of income for its economy. So far in January 2016, 29mn bbls of crude was monitored by Genscape as leaving Iran, which is now projected to see total monthly exports of around 33-37mn bbls during the month. After a slowdown in November 2015, partly due to South Korea taking no Iranian barrels, exports rose in December 2015 to 34mn bbl.

Over the past year, Iranian exports have averaged about 30-32mn bbls per month, or around 1.1mn bpd. That crude has principally headed to East Asia, which has been taking about 20mn bbls per month, and the Mediterranean, which has taken about 5-7mn bbls per month mainly into Turkey and Syria, according to Genscape ship monitoring. India has swung between taking 3-8mn bbls per month from Iran.

“The exceptional transparency Genscape is bringing to the global refined products and maritime shipping markets is proving its weight in gold with this unfolding Iranian situation,” said Dominick Chirichella, Founding Partner, Energy Management Institute.

Iranian officials have announced plans to ramp up production by 500,000 bpd (15mn bbls per month), aiming to target fast-growing Asian markets, in particular India, as well as its old partners in Europe. A gradual growth on Iran’s export levels is expected in coming months, while the existing global oil glut is likely to prove a major obstacle for the country’s crude being absorbed in the market without further price decline.

Iran has also said it could increase capacity by another 500,000 bpd within five or six months. It is likely that it will take some time to secure buyers for that extra capacity in the current over-supplied environment.

Genscape monitors Middle East Crude exports daily using its Genscape Vesseltracker data together with market intelligence sources to identify the loadport of each departing crude tanker and track it through to its final destination. To learn more about Genscape Vesseltracker, or request a free trial, please visit: http://www.genscape.com/maritime

The weekly Middle East Crude Report includes complete details on every departing shipment and will continue to track the growth in Iranian output as it happens to help market participants assess the impact of any changes in flow on regional markets. To learn more about the Middle East Waterborne Crude report, or to request a free trial, please visit: http://www.genscape.com/middle-east-crude-waterborne-report

About Genscape

Genscape is the leading global provider of real-time data and intelligence for commodity and energy markets, driven to improve market transparency and efficiency. With thousands of patented monitors strategically deployed worldwide, Genscape is unique in its ability to collect and report proprietary market fundamentals in real-time or near real-time. Genscape delivers innovative solutions across a number of asset classes including: Oil, Power, Natural Gas and LNG, Agriculture, Petrochemical and NGLs, Maritime, and Renewables. Genscape clients often gain important insights, improve risk management, or increase operational efficiency. For more information, please visit: http://www.genscape.com

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Jaimie Weiss
Genscape, Inc.
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