Artificial Intelligence to Predict Who Will Have a Heart Attack in the Next 12 Months

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SHAPE to hold the first focus group meeting on Machine Learning Vulnerable Patient during 2016 American Heart Association Convention. For the first time artificial intelligence is being used to predict who will have from a heart attack in the next 12 months.

SHAPE, the Society for Heart Attack Prevention and Eradication (, a nonprofit grassroots organization dedicated to the mission of eradicating heart attacks, today announced the agenda of its first focus group meeting on prediction of near-future heart attacks using artificial intelligence. The meeting is led by Dr. Morteza Naghavi the founder and executive director of SHAPE and features leading cardiovascular researchers from around the world..
This will be the 20th scientific meeting held by SHAPE since 2001.

Detailed agenda of the meeting is shown below.

The First Machine Learning Vulnerable Patient Symposium
A Focus Group Meeting on Developing an Artificial Intelligence-based Forecast System
A Satellite Event in Conjunction with
2016 Annual Scientific Sessions of American Heart Association

Le Meridien Hotel, New Orleans, LA
November 14, 7-10 PM

This event is open to public. Participation via GoToMeeting can be requested. Dinner will be served 7:30 PM. This is the 20th Vulnerable Plaque & Vulnerable Patient Symposium held by SHAPE since 2001.

Click Here to Register


Morteza Naghavi, M.D.
Founder of SHAPE and Executive Chairman of the SHAPE Task Force

Opening Remarks:
Valentin Fuster, M.D., Ph.D.
Professor of Medicine and Physician-in-Chief, Mount Sinai Hospital and Icahn School of Medicine

David Maron, M.D.
Clinical Professor and Director, Preventive Cardiology, Stanford University

Jagat Narula M.D., Ph.D.
Chief of Cardiology, Mount Sinai West & St. Luke’s Hospitals Associate,
Dean, Arnhold Institute for Global Health at Mount Sinai Icahn School of Medicine

Featured Speaker:

Ioannis Kakadiaris, Ph.D.
Professor of Computer Science and Biomedical Engineering,
Director of Machine Learning Laboratory
University of Houston

Topic: What is Machine Learning and How Can It Shape the Future of Healthcare?

Invited Online Presentations:
Two Examples of Machine Learning Studies in CVD Risk Assessment (10 minutes each)
CVD prediction using support vector machine in a large Australian cohort.

(1) CVD risk prediction using support vector machine based on Australian Blue Mountains Eye study database

Dinesh Kumar, Ph.D. and Sridhar Arjunan, Ph.D.
Biosignals Lab, School of Electrical and Computer Engineering, RMIT University, Melbourne, Australia

(2) Prediction of revascularization after myocardial perfusion SPECT by machine learning in a large clinical population

Piotr Slomka, Ph.D.
Chief Scientist, Artificial Intelligence in Medicine Program, Department of Imaging Cedars-Sinai Medical Center, Professor, UCLA School of Medicine, Los Angeles, CA

Moderated Discussions on the Vulnerable Patient Project
Machine Learning for Prediction of Near-Term CHD Events
All investigators will be asked to give a very brief introduction of their study and how it can fit in

“Machine Learning Vulnerable Patient Project”.

Project Summary

Background: Imagine instead of the existing daily weather forecasts and hurricane alerts we were told the probability of a storm within the next 10 years! This is how heart attacks are predicted today. We teach our physicians to calculate the 10-year probability of a heart attack and sudden cardiac death based on their patients’ risk factors. Long term predictions do not trigger immediate preventive actions. Although some people develop warning symptoms, half of men and two-thirds of women who die suddenly of coronary heart disease (CHD) have no previous symptoms. Imagine if we could alert people months, weeks, or even days before a heart attack and trigger immediate preventive actions.

The Idea: Use machine learning to create new algorithms to detect who will experience a CHD event within a year (The Vulnerable Patient). Algorithms will be based on banked biospecimen and information collected days up to 12 months prior to the event. We will utilize existing cohorts such as MESA, Heinz Nixdorf Recall Study, Framingham Heart Study, BioImage Study and the Dallas Heart Study. External validation to test for discrimination and calibration will be conducted using other longitudinal observational studies that provide adjudicated cardiovascular event information such as the MiHeart, JHS, DANRISK and ROBINSCA. Additionally, we will use machine learning to characterize individuals who, despite high conventional risk, have lived over 80 years with no CHD events (The Invulnerable ). We expect to discover new targets for drug and possibly vaccine development. We will make the algorithms available as an open source tool to collect additional data over time and increase its predictive value.

SHAPE as the originating and organizing center for the entire project, recruiting new studies and biobanks, conducting workshops with researchers from each study, fundraising, creating an open source platform community for future enhancement and collaborations.
Stanford as the coordinating center for collecting data and samples, and basic science labs.
Mount Sinai as the data review and publication center.
Machine Learning Lab to be decided, either Google, Apple, IBM, Facebook, Amazon or wherever we find a strong industry partner or sponsor.

Introductory Presentation to Final Topic:

Challenges in Predicting Acute Coronary Events

Armin A. Zadeh, M.D. Ph.D., M.P.H.

Director, Cardiac Computed Tomography, Associate Professor of Medicine, Johns Hopkins University Division of Cardiology, The Johns Hopkins Hospital

Final Topic: A Billion Dollar Question to All Participants

Imagine the new machine learning Vulnerable Patient detection algorithm (heart attack forecaster) is created and validated. If studies confirm the algorithm is able to detect the Vulnerable Patient with 50% or more certainty. In other words, 1 out of 2 patients classified as Vulnerable Patient goes to have an ASCVD event in the following 12 months. Now the questions are:

A)    What preventive actions would you take if your asymptomatic patient tested positive as a Vulnerable Patient?

B)    What preventive actions would you take if the patient was you?! (This question is meant to circumvent regulatory and financial limitations that may apply to your patients but may not hold you back).

Moderators will invite comments from all participants in the meeting.
Invited Key Opinion Leaders (Alphabetic Order)

Arthur Agatston, M.D.
Founder of South Beach Diet, Director of Wellness at Baptist Hospital and Professor of Medicine at University of Miami, FL

Juan Badimon, Ph.D.
Professor of Medicine, Director, Atherothrombosis Research Unit, Mount Sinai Hospital, New York, NY

Sameer Bansilal, M.D.
Assistant Professor Medicine, Cardiology, Mount Sinai Hospital, New York, NY

Daniel Berman, M.D.
Professor of Medicine at UCLA, Director of Cardiac Imaging and Nuclear Cardiology at Cedars-Sinai, Los Angeles, CA

Marcio Bittencourt, M.D., Ph.D., M.P.H.,
Professor of Medicine, University of São Paulo, Sãn Paulo, Brazil

Michael Blaha, M.D., M.P.H.,
Director of Clinical Research, Ciccarone Center for the Prevention of Heart Disease, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD

Mathew Budoff, M.D.
Professor of Medicine and Director of Preventive Cardiology, UCLA Harbor, Los Angeles, CA

Adolfo Correa, M.D., Ph.D.
Chief Science Officer, Jackson Heart Study, Professor of Medicine and Pediatrics, University of Mississippi, Jackson, MS

Rahul Deo, M.D., Ph.D.
Assistant Professor of Medicine, Division of Cardiology, University of California, San Francisco, CA

Axel C. P. Diederichsen, M.D.
Associate Professor, Department of Cardiology, Odense University Hospital, Denmark

Raimund Erbel, M.D.
Professor of Medicine, Chief of Cardiology and Director of West German Heart Centre, University Essen, Germany

Erling Falk, M.D., Ph.D.
Professor of Pathology and Cardiology, Aarhus University Hospital (Skejby), Aarhus, Denmark

Sergio Fazio, M.D., Ph.D.
Chair of Preventive Cardiology and Professor of Medicine, Oregon Health and Science University, Portland, OR

Zahi Fayad, M.D.
Professor of Radiology and Medicine (Cardiology), Director of the Translational and Molecular Imaging Institute, Mount Sinai Hospital, New York, NY

Steve Feinstein, M.D.
Professor, Cardiovascular Disease, Internal Medicine, Rush University Medical Center, Chicago, IL

Oscar Franco, M.D., Ph.D.
of Preventive Medicine, PI Cardiovascular Epidemiology Group, Director of ErasmusAGE, Erasmus Medical Center, Rotterdam, Netherlands

Valentin Fuster, M.D., Ph.D.
Physician-in-Chief, Mount Sinai Hospital, Mount Sinai Hospital, New York, NY

Philip Greenland, M.D.,
Professor of Cardiology, Director, Institute for Public Health and Medicine, Center for Population Health Sciences, Chicago, IL

Khawar Gul, M.D.
Consultant Cardiologist, SHAPE Volunteer, Lompoc Valley Medical Center, Lompoc, CA

Craig J. Hartley, Ph.D.
Professor Emeritus – Cardiovascular Sciences and Bioengineering, Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, TX

Robert Harrington, M.D.
Chair of the Department of Medicine, Professor of Medicine, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, CA

Harvey Hecht, M.D.,
Director of Cardiac CT Imaging Laboratory, Mount Sinai School of Medicine, New York, NY

Howard Hodis, M.D.
Director of Atherosclerosis Research, Keck School of Medicine USC, Los Angeles, CA

Borja Ibáñez, M.D., Ph.D.
Professor, Spanish National Center for Cardiovascular Research (CNIC) & Cardiologist, Hospital Clinico San Carlos, Madrid, Spain

Karl-Heinz Jöckel, Ph.D.
Institute for Medical Informatics, Biometry and Epidemiology, University of Duisburg-Essen, Germany

Ioannis Kakadiaris, Ph.D.
Professor of Computer Science and Biomedical Engineering, University of Houston, Houston, TX

Amit Khera, M.D.
Associate Professor and Director, Preventive Cardiology Program, UT Southwestern Medical Center, Dallas, TX

Stanley Kleis, Ph.D.
Professor of Mechanical Engineering and Biomedical Engineering, University of Houston, Houston, TX

Robert Kloner, M.D., Ph.D.
Director, Cardiovascular Research, Huntington Medical Research Institute, Pasadena, California

Wolfgang Koenig, M.D., Ph.D.,
Professor of Medicine (Cardiology), Univeristy of Ulm Medical School, Ulm, Germany

Harry de Koning, M.D., Ph.D.
Professor of Screening Evaluation, School of Public Health, Erasmus MC, Rotterdam, Rotterdam, Netherlands

Tatiana Kuznetsova, M.D.
Professor and Director, Hypertension and Cardiovascular Epidemiology, University of Leuven, Leuven, Belgium

Daniel Levy, M.D.
Director of Framingham Heart Study, and Intramural Investigator, National Institute of Health, Bethesda, MD

Jes Linddholt, DMSci., Ph.D.
Elitary Research Centre of Individualised Medicine in Arterial Diseases, Odense University Hospital, Denmark

Amir-Abbas Mahabadi, M.D.
Assistant Professor of Cardiology, West German Heart Centre, University Essen, Germany

Ken Mahaffey, M.D.
Professor of Medicine (Cardiovascular Medicine), Stanford University Medical Center, Stanford, CA

David Maron, M.D.
Professor and Director, Preventive Cardiology, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, CA

Roxana Mehran, M.D.
Professor of Medicine and Director of Interventional Clinical Trials, Mount Sinai School of Medicine, New York, NY

Ralph Metcalfe, Ph.D.
Professor of Mechanical and Biomedical Engineering, University of Houston, Houston, TX

Susanne Moebus, Ph.D., M.P.H.
Biologist & Epidemiologist, Head of the Centre for Urban Epidemiology, University Essen, Germany

Martin Mortensen, M.D., Ph.D.
Assistant Professor of Cardiology, Aarhus University Hospital, Arhus, Denmark

James Muller, M.D.
Former Professor at Harvard Medical School and Massachuset General Hospital, Boston, MA

Morteza Naghavi, M.D.
Founder and Executive Chairman of the SHAPE Task Force, President of MEDITEX, Houston, TX

Tasneem Z. Naqvi, M.D.
Professor of Medicine and Director of Echocardiography, College of Medicine, May Clinic, Scottsdale, AZ

Jagat Narula, M.D., Ph.D.
Associate Dean for Global Affairs, Professor of Medicine (Cardiology), Mount Sinai Hospital and School of Medicine, New York, NY

Khurram Nasir, M.D., M.P.H.
Director, High-risk Cardiovascular Disease Clinic, Baptist Health South Florida, Miami, Florida

Christopher J. O’Donnell, M.D., M.P.H.
Chief, Cardiovascular Epidemiology and Human Genomics Branch, NHLBI Division of Intramural Research, Bethesda, MD

Matthijs Oudkerk, M.D.
Faculty of Medical Sciences, University of Groningen, Groningen, Netherlands

Paolo Raggi, M.D.
Director, Mazankowski Alberta Heart Institute, Professor of Medicine, University of Alberta, Edmonton, AB, Canada

Ulla Roggenbuck, Ph.D.
Institute for Medical Informatics, Biometry and Epidemiology, University Hospital of Essen, Germany

James HF Rudd, Ph.D.
Senior Lecturer, Division of Cardiovascular Medicine, University of Cambridge Hospital, Cambridge, UK

P.K. Shah, M.D.
Professor and Director, Atherosclerosis Research Center, Cedars-Sinai Medical Center, UCLA, Los Angeles, CA

Henrik Sillesen, M.D.
Professor and Head of Dept. of Vascular Surgery, Rigs Hospitalet, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark

Robert Superko, M.D.
Professor of Medicine and President at Cholesterol, Genetics, and Heart Disease Institute, Carmel, CA

Brenda Garrett Superko, C.V.R.N.
Board Member of SHAPE. Assistant Director Cholesterol, Genetics, and Heart Disease Institute, Carmel, CA

Hiro Tanaka, Ph.D.
Professor and Director, Cardiovascular Aging Research Laboratory, University of Texas, Austin, TX

Ahmed Tawakol, M.D.
Co-Director, Cardiac MR PET CT Program, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, MA

Herman A. Taylor, M.D., M.P.H.
Director, Cardiovascular Research Institute, Morehouse School of Medicine, Atlanta, GA

Pierre-Jean Touboul, M.D.
Professor of Neurology, Department of Neurology and Stroke Center, AP-HP Bichat University Hospital, Neurology and Stroke Center, Paris, France

Thomas J. Wang, M.D.
Director of Cardiovascular Medicine, and Physician-in-Chief, Vanderbilt Heart Institute, Nashville, TN

Nathan Wong, M.P.H., Ph.D.
Professor of Epidemiology and Director, Heart Disease Prevention Program, University of California, Irvine, CA

JoAnne Zawitoski, J.D.
Chairwoman, SHAPE, Principal, Semmes, Bowen & Semmes LLC, Attorneys at Law, Baltimore, MD


Symposium Registration
The Society for Heart Attack Prevention and Eradication (SHAPE) is a non-profit organization that promotes education and research related to prevention, detection, and treatment of heart attacks. SHAPE is committed to raising public awareness about revolutionary discoveries that are opening exciting avenues that can lead to the eradication of heart attacks. SHAPE's mission is to eradicate heart attacks in the 21st century. SHAPE has recently embarked on “Machine Learning Heart Attack Forecast System (Vulnerable Patient Project)” Project which is a collaborative effort between world’s leading cardiovascular researchers to develop a new Heart Attack Forecast System empowered by artificial intelligence. Additional information on this innovative project will be announced soon. To learn more about SHAPE visit Contact information: 1-877-SHAPE11 and info(at)shapesociety(dot)org.

Learn more about the Vulnerable Patient

About SHAPE Task Force
The SHAPE Task Force, an international group of leading cardiovascular physicians and researchers, has created the SHAPE Guidelines, which educates physicians on how to identify asymptomatic atherosclerosis (hidden plaques) and implement proper therapies to prevent a future heart attack. According to the SHAPE Guidelines, men 45-75 and women 55-75 need to be tested for hidden plaques in coronary or carotid arteries. Individuals with high risk atherosclerosis (high plaque score) should be treated even if their cholesterol level is within statistical “normal range.” If they have plaques, the so-called normal is not normal for them. The higher the amount of plaque burden in the arteries the higher the risk and the more vulnerable to heart attack. SHAPE Guideline aims to identify the asymptomatic “Vulnerable Patient” and offer them intensive preventive therapy to prevent a future heart attack. Knowing one's plaque score can be a matter of life and death.

The SHAPE Task Force includes the following:

Morteza Naghavi, M.D. – Executive Chairman
PK Shah, M.D. – Chair of Scientific Board
Erling Falk, M.D., Ph.D. – Chief of Editorial Committee

The SHAPE Task Force Members and Advisors (alphabetic order):

Arthur Agatston, M.D., Daniel Arking, Ph.D., Juan Badimon, Ph.D., Raymond Bahr, M.D., Daniel S. Berman, M.D., Matthew J. Budoff, M.D., Jay Cohn, M.D., Michael Davidson, M.D., Raimund Erbel, M.D., Erling Falk, M.D., Ph.D., Zahi Fayad, Ph.D., Sergio Fazio, MD, PhD, Steven B. Feinstein, M.D., Craig Hartley, Ph.D., Harvey S. Hecht, M.D., Howard Hodis, M.D., Ioannis Kakadiaris, Ph.D., Sanjay Kaul, M.D., M.P.H., Asher Kimchi. M.D., Wolfgang Koenig, M.D., Ph.D., Iftikhar J. Kullo, M.D., Daniel Lane, M.D., Ph.D., David Maron, M.D., Roxana Mehran, M.D., Ralph Metcalfe, Ph.D., Morteza Naghavi, M.D., Khurram Nasir, M.D., M.P.H., Tasneem Z. Naqvi, M.D., Jagat Narula, M.D., Paolo Raggi, M.D., George P. Rodgers, M.D., James HF Rudd, Ph.D., John A. Rumberger, PhD, M.D., Robert S. Schwartz, M.D., PK Shah, M.D., Leslee Shaw, Ph.D., David Spence, M.D., H. Robert Superko, M.D., Henrik Sillesen, M.D., Ph.D., Pierre-Jean Touboul, M.D. Nathan D. Wong, Ph.D.

Distinguished SHAPE Task Force Advisor: Valentin Fuster, M.D., Ph.D.

Chair of SHAPE Board of Directors: JoAnne Zawitoski, J.D.

Vice Chair and Executive Board Member: Brenda Garrett Superko, CVRN

The SHAPE Task Force Public Relations: Daniel Keeney

Executive Director of SHAPE Centers of Excellence: Jeff Fine, Ph.D.

Click below to learn about SHAPE Centers of Excellence

Drs Naghavi, PK Shah, Daniel Berman, and Mathew Budoff members of the SHAPE Task Force explain how hospitals and community clinics can become a SHAPE Center of Excellence and establish themselves a leader in preventive health.

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