Crosswind Texas Poll Shows Trump with Safe 7% Lead but Close Enough to Create Unease Among Down-Ballot Candidates

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Trump has larger lead with women, but Clinton captures the young

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Conventional wisdom is that Texas is turning purple. Our research shows clearly that Texas is not yet a tossup state, but Hillary is giving Trump a run for his money.

Despite widespread Democratic hopes that Texas was moving into the “tossup” category, a statewide poll released Tuesday showed Trump leading 45 percent to Clinton’s 38 percent among likely voters, with 7 percent for Libertarian Party candidate Gary Johnson and 10 percent not sure.

The Crosswind Texas Pulse Poll revealed sharp divides among racial and ethnic groups, as well as among young and older Texans. In a state with one of the nation’s largest Hispanic populations, Clinton led Trump among Hispanics 56 percent to 24 percent. Among black voters, the lead was even more striking: Clinton was favored over Trump 77-17 percent.

“Conventional wisdom is that Texas is turning purple. Our research shows clearly that Texas is not yet a tossup state, but Hillary is giving Trump a run for his money,” said Thomas Graham, president and CEO of Crosswind Media & Public Relations, a Texas-based firm with offices in New York, Los Angeles and Washington, D.C.

The poll showed statistical chasms separating Clinton and Trump based on gender and age. Women favored Trump over Clinton by a margin of 46-38 percent. In contrast, Trump led among men 43-39 percent.

Clinton captured those 18-39 years old by a wide margin, 51-26 percent over Trump. Trump was significantly ahead, 48-35 percent, among people ages 40 to 64. And Trump’s lead among Texans 65 and older was a striking 71-25 percent.

“It would appear that in Texas, many moms who are supporting Trump have children supporting Clinton,” Graham said.

The Crosswind Texas Pulse Poll, a periodic survey of Texans' opinions on a variety of cultural, economic and political issues, was conducted by Crosswind Media & Public Relations from October 22-24, 2016. The survey included 800 likely voters in Texas. The margin of error is +/- 3.5 percentage points with a 95 percent level of confidence.

Of the 800 likely voters surveyed, 36 percent identified Republican and 31 percent identified Democrat, with 33 percent identified as other.

Asked about the most important issues facing Texas, 29 percent said immigration and border security, and 24 percent said economy and jobs. Health care and education trailed, at 12 percent each.

“Trump is going to win Texas, but Hillary Clinton will make it uncomfortable for him and for Republicans,” said Graham, the Crosswind CEO. “Texans apparently hold Trump as the more effective candidate on their priority issues of immigration, border security, economy and jobs.”

Crosswind also polled likely Texas voters on their overall opinion of national and state leaders, including President Obama and Gov. Greg Abbott.

Texans gave Obama an overall favorability rating of 48 percent, up from 41 percent in the 2015 Crosswind poll.

For Gov. Abbott, Texans gave him an overall favorability rating of 58 percent, up from 54 percent in the 2015 Crosswind poll.

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Rich Oppel Sr.
@CrosswindPR
since: 08/2009
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