Ian Bremmer, Eurasia Group President, says the Trump Presidency will Push the World Further into Geopolitical Recession

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Eurasia Group is anticipating a peaceful transition to a Trump administration, but Washington in 2017 will be a sea change from the Obama era.

“A Trump presidency means the most significant hit to American power and leadership globally than any other event since the collapse of the Soviet Union.” - Ian Bremmer, Eurasia Group President

With the election of Donald Trump as President of the United States, “the world is heading into a profound (and longer term) geopolitical recession,” according to Ian Bremmer, president of Eurasia Group. “A Trump presidency means the most significant hit to American power and leadership globally than any other event since the collapse of the Soviet Union.”

Eurasia Group is anticipating a peaceful transition to a Trump administration, but Washington in 2017 will be a sea change from the Obama era. According to chairman Cliff Kupchan and U.S. director Jon Lieber in a note today, “The Trump foreign policy will be a major source of market anxiety and geopolitical instability. The GOP as we knew it is over. The party will be completely reshaped by Trump’s electoral victory.”

The Trump administration will create a new class of winners and losers worldwide, according to Eurasia Group. Here is how the key players will fare:

Winners

  • Vladimir Putin: Trump has promised a closer relationship with Russia and has praised Putin’s leadership.
  • Bashar al-Assad: One of the first arenas for US-Russia cooperation would be in Syria, where any agreement to fight the Islamic State jointly would benefit the Assad regime.
  • Carbon-intensive fuels: Trump has pledged not to defend the Clean Power Plan in the Supreme Court, paving the way for it to be struck down, and states to return to a power mix more reliant on fossil fuels.
  • Shinzo Abe’s reforms: As Trump pulls back from alliances, PM Abe’s argument that Japan needs a stronger military to defend itself grows more persuasive.
  • Twitter: Trump will likely be the first president to use Twitter as his primary mode of communication.

Losers

  • Paul Ryan: A Trump victory will weaken Speaker Ryan, whose free-market policy vision will not govern the new, populist, Trump-led GOP.
  • TPP: One of Trump’s first acts will be to withdraw the US from the agreement.
  • Janet Yellen: Trump has criticized the Federal Reserve and Yellen in particular, and would likely replace her when her term ends in 2018 if not earlier.
  • Immigrants: Trump has promised to deport millions of illegal immigrants and create an “extreme vetting” program for legal immigrants from majority-Muslim states.
  • Polls: Both public and campaign pollsters – including Trump’s - were massively wrong, misestimating turnout in a wave election; another embarrassment on the heels of similar mishaps in the UK, Colombia, and Greece.

Said Bremmer, “There are three aspects of American leadership that will be affected by the Trump administration and the growing geopolitical recession: the United States' role as world policeman, architect of global trade, and cheerleader of global values.”

Ian Bremmer will be sharing his views and taking questions LIVE on Facebook today at 5pm EST at http://www.facebook.com/ianbremmer.

You can also find his latest article on the Trump presidency here.

Please contact us at media(at)eurasiagroup(dot)net if you would like more information or to request an interview.

About Eurasia Group:

Eurasia Group is the world's leading global political risk research and consulting firm. By providing information and insight on how political developments move markets, we help clients anticipate and respond to instability and opportunities everywhere they invest or do business. Founded in 1998, the firm's name reveals its early focus on the former Soviet Union and Eastern Europe, but today our research platform is global. Our analysts monitor political, economic, social, and security developments in Africa, Asia, Eurasia, Europe, Latin America, the Middle East, and North America. Headquartered in New York, we have offices in Washington, DC, and London, as well as on-the-ground experts and resources in more than a hundred countries. Our analysts are highly trained political scientists with extensive experience in the public and private sectors.

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Alexsandra Sanford, Director of Communications
Eurasia Group
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