Lone Star’s Multi-Criteria Modeling Showcased at INFORMS

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Well-meaning policies and regulations can backfire. Advanced simulation methods let policy makers try ideas before committing to them in real life.

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“Regulations created with the best of intentions, can have unintended consequences; sometimes the opposite of what was intended.” - Steve Roemerman

Steve Roemerman, CEO of Lone Star Analysis presented, “A Multicriteria, Multiplayer Model: The Protest Casino” at the 2016 INFORMS annual conference. Mr. Roemerman described simulation and modeling for public policy in Federal acquisitions. His co-author was Randal Allen.

The work presented at INFORMS involved modeling competitive behavior among bidders using game theory methods, econometrics, and policy analysis among other academic fields. The “Protest Casino” study was provided as a pro bono public service for federal decision makers. It modeled one aspect of competitions; protests by bidders who disagree with government actions.

“Many decisions involve several stakeholders, and disciplines,” Steve said. “Math and behavioral economic terms might sound abstract or exotic, but the issues are very real, and the results are concrete. Lone Star delivers multicriteria, multidiscipline work frequently. This is just one example of a problem crossing several academic disciplines and organizational boundaries.”

“Regulations created with the best of intentions, can have unintended consequences; sometimes the opposite of what was intended.” Roemerman said. “Competitive behavior can be very complex. Our cognitive biases make us prone to misjudge the likely actions of others.”

Lone Star has unique credentials in assessing economic competitions. The company performs competitive intelligence and uses the “11 Questions” strategic pricing evaluation, which it pioneered. Lone Star developed a specialized competition simulation tool, TruPredict™. TruPredict accurately models the behaviors and biases of all the buyers and sellers in a competition, using a number of advanced methods, including Game Theory, and Prospect Theory. TruPredict has been used on dozens of Price to Win engagements with impressive accuracy. More about Lone Star’s Competitive Differentiation line of business found at http://lone-star.com/solutions/competitive-differntation/

About Lone Star

Lone Star provides powerful solutions that improve operations. We serve industrial markets, aerospace & defense, oil & gas, transportation & logistics, and the public sector. Our analytics products and technology-enabled services are proven; we deliver the right answer for your operational needs. We are committed to generating improved operational and financial performance through accurate and actionable answers to our client’s most critical business challenges. Our reputation is built on creating lasting value for our clients. Headquartered in Dallas, Texas, Lone Star is found on the web at http://www.Lone-Star.com.

About INFORMS

The Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences (INFORMS) is the largest society in the world for professionals in the field of operations research (O.R.), management science, and analytics. INFORMS serves the scientific and professional needs of Analytics Professionals and Operations Researchers including educators, scientists, students, managers, analysts, and consultants. For more about INFORMS, see https://www.informs.org/

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Rita King
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