After Two Consecutive Quarters of Stalled Traffic Growth, Restaurant Visits Decline in Third Quarter —Quick service visits declined for the first time in five years

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A confluence of squeezed consumer wallets, the rising cost of dining out, and changing needs and wants has brought the U.S. restaurant industry traffic growth to a halt in the first two quarters of 2016 and into the negative in the third quarter, reports The NPD Group, the leading global information company.

What hasn’t changed and won’t change is the consumer’s need for foodservice; it saves them time and provides them with an experience, says Bonnie Riggs, NPD Group's restaurant industry analyst.

A confluence of squeezed consumer wallets, the rising cost of dining out, and changing needs and wants has brought the U.S. restaurant industry traffic growth to a halt in the first two quarters of 2016 and into the negative in the third quarter, reports The NPD Group, the leading global information company. Total foodservice visits declined by 1 percent in the third quarter compared to same quarter last year, and quick service restaurant traffic, which represents 80 percent of total industry visits, dropped for the first time in five years, according to NPD’s ongoing foodservice market research.

“The term growing your business in a ‘one percent world’ has become a popular mantra for the restaurant industry after six consecutive years of annual traffic gains of just one percent,” says Bonnie Riggs, restaurant industry analyst at NPD. “However, over the past six months restaurant industry traffic growth has come to a standstill and quick service restaurants, which have been the traffic growth drivers, are now experiencing a slowdown in visits.”

Riggs, who recently authored a report entitled, Losing Our Appetites for Restaurants, points out that there are multiple reasons why consumers have pulled back on visiting restaurants and chief among them is cost. She states in her report that rising healthcare costs and/or student debt have reduced the amount of disposable income consumers have in their wallets. According to a survey of the longitudinal panelists participating in NPD’s receipt mining service, Checkout Tracking, 75 percent of the respondents who have decreased their visits to restaurants say they watch how they spend their money on most or all purchases, and a high percentage of these respondents think that restaurant prices are too high. The fact is the cost of the average restaurant meal has risen 21 percent over the last decade and with lower grocery prices the price gap between eating at home and dining out is widening. Eighty-two percent of all meals are now consumed in-home.

“The marketplace is changing and despite improving economic indicators, the consumer landscape is fundamentally reshaped,” says Riggs. “What hasn’t changed and won’t change is the consumer’s need for foodservice; it saves them time and provides them with an experience. Restaurant operators will need to look for ways to differentiate themselves from the competition. They will need to find the means to stay relevant in consumers’ minds – innovative products, unique promotions, competitive pricing, stating the benefits of eating at restaurants compared to home – while delivering an enjoyable experience.”

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About The NPD Group, Inc.
The NPD Group provides market information and business solutions that drive better decision-making and better results. The world’s leading brands rely on us to help them get the right products in the right places for the right people. Practice areas include apparel, appliances, automotive, beauty, consumer electronics, diamonds, e-commerce, entertainment, fashion accessories, food consumption, foodservice, footwear, home, mobile, office supplies, retail, sports, technology, toys, video games, and watches / jewelry. For more information, visit npd.com and npdgroupblog.com. Follow us on Twitter: @npdgroup

Checkout Tracking provides detailed information on consumer buying behavior, based on receipts for both online and brick-and-mortar retail purchases from the same consumers over time. Checkout Tracking delivers precise category, brand, and item-level purchase detail linked to buyers and their demographics, useful for analyzing competitive market baskets and identifying purchase patterns. Information is collected from more than 50,000 consumers from NPD’s receipt-harvesting mobile phone app and the scanning of more than 4 million in-boxes for e-receipts through Slice Intelligence.

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Kim McLynn
The NPD Group
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