Trepp Examines What is Left of the CMBS Wall of Maturities

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Trepp has released new commercial real estate research on the large amount of maturing CMBS debt, highlighting how much has been resolved and the outlook for 2017 and beyond.

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With rising Treasury rates and a Fed-imposed rate hike possibly impending, borrowers might find it harder to land refinancing.

Trepp, LLC, the leading provider of information, analytics, and technology to the CMBS, commercial real estate, and banking markets, has published new research on the immense amount of maturing CMBS loans known as the wall of maturities. The report can be found here: http://info.trepp.com/wall-of-maturities-december-2016-press-release.

Trepp research shows that almost $190 billion of US commercial real estate loans in CMBS loans have been paid off or liquidated from the start of 2015 through the first three quarters of 2016. This represents a large portion of the wall of maturities, which is comprised of CMBS loans with final payment dates between 2015 and 2018. At the start of 2015, the wall of maturities exceeded $300 billion.

“Strong market fundamentals coupled with recent increases in property income levels have allowed borrowers to seize available capital and refinance loans prior to maturity,” said Manus Clancy, Senior Managing Director at Trepp. “However, challenges may arise in 2017 as many loans that mature next year are over-leveraged. With rising Treasury rates and a Fed-imposed rate hike possibly impending, borrowers might find it harder to land refinancing.”

Of the almost $190 billion in matured CMBS that was liquidated from January 2015 through September 2016, roughly 55% of that balance was paid off prior to maturity. An additional 29.3% of that total was resolved at, or within two months of maturity, while 3.83% of the debt was paid off after the loan was due.

Trepp data reflects that $24.1 billion in CMBS is due to mature by the end of 2016, and $112 billion will mature in 2017. An additional $17.6 billion of loans will come due in 2018. Loans backed by retail and office properties make up the largest remaining portion of the wall of maturities, as those two sectors combine for $86.8 billion of the total debt maturing from now to the end of 2018. However, the retail and office sectors feature the highest percentage of delinquent loans maturing in that frame among major property types.

For additional details, such as payoff breakdowns and further analysis on maturing debt, download Trepp’s research on the wall of maturities: http://info.trepp.com/wall-of-maturities-december-2016-press-release. For daily CMBS commentary, follow @TreppWire on Twitter.

About Trepp
Trepp, LLC, founded in 1979, is a leading provider of data, analytics, and technology solutions to the global securities and investment management industries. Trepp specifically serves three key sectors: structured finance, commercial real estate, and banking to help market participants meet their objectives for surveillance, credit risk management, and investment performance. Trusted by the industry for the accuracy of its proprietary data, Trepp provides clients sophisticated, comprehensive models and analytics. Trepp is wholly owned by dmg Information, the business information division of Daily Mail and General Trust (DMGT). For more information, visit http://www.Trepp.com.

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Sean Barrie
Trepp
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