Big Change in the Corn Market: New AAEA Member Research

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The United States has new competition in exporting corn from an unusual location

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When you’re planting corn and setting price expectations you have to pay attention to what’s happening in other countries or it may impact your bottom line come harvest time.

For decades the United States has set the tone in the worldwide corn market. But with the combination of the U.S. using about 1/3 of production for the country’s ethanol program, plus a rise in exports in other regions, things are changing.

And one of the regions playing a major factor in the corn expert game? The Ukraine.

The change in trade patterns and the impact on U.S. farmers is the focus of “Price Discovery When the Market Structure is Changing: The Case of Corn.” The paper is authored by Carlos Arnade of the United States Department of Agriculture Economic Research Service.

“The United States still dominates but other countries are making a significant impact,” Arnade says. “When you’re planting corn and setting price expectations you have to pay attention to what’s happening in other countries or it may impact your bottom line come harvest time.”

What other regions are providing a challenge to the U.S. and what factors could influence corn prices in the future?

Arnade and co-author Linwood Hoffman will present their findings during an AAEA session at the Allied Social Sciences Association (ASSA) 2017 Annual Meeting in Chicago, January 6-8. If you are interested in setting up an interview, please contact Jay Saunders in the AAEA Business Office.

ABOUT AAEA: Established in 1910, the Agricultural & Applied Economics Association (AAEA) is the leading professional association for agricultural and applied economists, with 2,500 members in more than 20 countries. Members of the AAEA work in academic or government institutions as well as in industry and not-for-profit organizations, and engage in a variety of research, teaching, and outreach activities in the areas of agriculture, the environment, food, health, and international development. The AAEA publishes two journals, the American Journal of Agricultural Economics and Applied Economic Perspectives & Policy, as well as the online magazine Choices. To learn more, visit http://www.aaea.org.

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