Housing Tides Index™ February 2017 - Market Health Decreases in 30 of the Top 41 Local U.S. Markets

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Housing Tides Index™ reveals a decline as U.S. housing homebuilding markets weaken slightly with supply shortfall

housing tides index national infographic february 2017

Housing Tides Index™ National Infographic February 2017

Analysis of economic indicators comprising the Housing Tides Index reveals that while the national housing market is healthy when viewed in historical context, the shortage of homes for sale continues to present an obstacle.

This week marks the release of the February Housing Tides Report™, featuring an update to the Housing Tides Index™, an objective and sophisticated approach to quantifying and comparing the health of U.S. housing markets. Analysis of economic indicators comprising the Index reveals that while the national housing market is healthy when viewed in historical context, the shortage of homes for sale continues to present an obstacle.

Understanding the health of a housing market and its relationship to other top markets requires an aggregated, comprehensive view of the industry. The Housing Tides Index provides a succinct monthly measure of market health across the top 41 U.S. markets. Referencing 18 market indicators ranging from unemployment rates and housing permits to rental vacancy and mortgage foreclosure rates, the Tides Index helps users understand exposure at a deeper level than is currently possible.

National Housing Tides Index Summary - February, 2017

  • The U.S. housing industry weakened slightly this month as the Housing Tides Index decreased to 72.4 in February from 73.1 in January. The February Index value is down from 73.4 one year ago.
  • The Housing Tides Index values decreased in 30 of the top 41 local markets this month.
  • Much of the decrease in the Index is due to worsening of housing supply, which was already constrained. Nationally, housing inventory fell to 2.9 months of supply in December per latest data from real estate brokerage Redfin.
  • It’s important to recognize that significant geographic differences in housing supply remain; for example, Seattle and San Jose currently have less than one month of supply while Fort Myers and Miami have 5.1 and 6.7 months of supply, respectively.
  • U.S. rent prices increased further in November according to Zillow, with the median list price for a two-bedroom unit rising to $1,635 per month. The U.S. rental vacancy rate rose one-tenth of one percent to 6.9% in Q4 2016 per recent published data from the Census Bureau.
  • Data from the Federal Housing Finance Agency show that effective mortgage rates rose to 3.99% in December after the Federal Reserve decided to hike the target federal funds rate by 0.25 percentage points at the December, 2016 meeting.
  • Homebuilder sentiment improved in December as the NAHB & Wells Fargo Housing Market Index survey of builders rose to a value of 69. This is substantially higher than the neutral Index value of 50 and is the most optimistic reading of homebuilder sentiment since July, 2005.

Highlighting the Ten Healthiest U.S. Housing Markets - February, 2017 - Please reference the attached graph to view the ten healthiest U.S. Housing Markets.

Click here to view the complete Housing Tides Index of the top 41 U.S. markets.

Media Exclusive! Housing Tides Monthly Pulse. An email service exclusively created for media that delivers an updated infographic depicting the latest monthly Housing Tides Index, the complete Index as it appears in the Housing Tides Report™, and a brief executive summary. All content can be shared in print and digital publications, with attribution to the Housing Tides Report.
Members of the media can subscribe to the Housing Tides Monthly Pulse here.

About Housing Tides

Housing Tides™ (“Tides”) is the only monthly report that provides a comprehensive measure and aggregated understanding of the health of the U.S. housing and home building industry. Designed to take the guesswork out of the vast amount of forecasting information published about this sector, Tides is a sophisticated report that delivers city-specific, updated information when market conditions change. It is the only report that uses natural language processing and machine learning to correctly understand and synthesize large volumes of data, making it more comprehensive, balanced and reliable than any other report of its kind. More information is available at http://www.housingtides.com.

Housing Tides is proudly partnered with IBM Watson®.

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Hannah Finch

Sanaya Robles
since: 08/2016
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