NCPA Experts Score Repealing and Replacing the ACA Results: More Employment, More Personal Income, Less Federal Revenue

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NCPA finds what the CBO didn't: repeal of the ACA will result in more jobs, more income, and more investment. The ACA didn't boost the economy after all, but the House plan will.

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The Council of Economic Advisers predicted that health care reform would provide a stimulus to the economy. Now we find that it is the repeal of health care reform that will provide a stimulus to the economy.

The National Center for Policy Analysis' Tax Analysis Center recently scored the economic and revenue effects of the proposed House plan. The results? The plan would unburden the job market and increase workers' incomes due to the repeal of Obamacare taxes, but would bring in less federal revenues.

Using the NCPA-DCGE model developed by Dr. David Tuerck and his team at the Beacon Hill Institute in Boston, he and Director of Research Paul Bachman measured what the Congressional Budget Office did not: the effect on the economy of repealing eight different Obamacare taxes, increasing Health Savings Accounts contribution limits and repealing contribution limits for Flexible Spending Accounts.

Among their findings:

  • Health care reform would increase real gross domestic product (GDP), relative to the current baseline, by 1.34 percent in 2018 and by 1.50 percent in 2027.
  • Private sector employment would exceed baseline by 745,000 jobs in 2018 and 940,000 jobs in 2019.
  • It would bring about additional increases in personal income, business investment and net exports.
  • However, it would reduce federal revenues by about $1 trillion over 10 years.

Said Dr. Tuerck, “In 2009, the Council of Economic Advisers predicted that health care reform would provide a stimulus to the economy. Now we find that it is the repeal of health care reform that will provide a stimulus to the economy and with what many may find to be a surprisingly small loss in government revenue.”

Summary of the results: http://www.ncpa.org/pub/the-economic-effects-of-repealing-the-affordable-care-act

Dr. Tuerck's Powerpoint presentation: https://www.beaconhill.org/NAT-MODEL/NCPAReport2017-0315ACAupdated0311.pdf

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