Predicting The Next Housing Hot Spot: 'China Districts 2017 - Beyond Cities' Report from Real Estate Foresight

Share Article

Housing market in Yubei district in Chongqing was the top performer on price and volume growth among 203 districts in 21 major cities in the third annual study of the housing markets at a district level in China by Real Estate Foresight

The new 'China Districts 2017 - Beyond Cities' report, published by the Hong Kong based Real Estate Foresight (, explores the dynamics of the housing markets in China across 203 districts in 21 major cities.

This third annual special report on China Districts presents districts that stand out on multiple-criteria rankings for performance on growth in average house prices and gross floor area (GFA) volumes, with latest data for July 2017, focused on the year-to-date year-on-year changes.


1. Chongqing Districts Outperform

Three of the best performers on a combined price and volume growth are in Chongqing – Yubei, Banan and
Beibei, along with Jiangdong (Ningbo) and Hannan (Wuhan). Policy tightening in Chongqing has not been as
restrictive as in other cities, supporting the strength of the market.

2. Suburban Areas Do Very Well

Non-central areas are some of the most interesting districts on both price growth and especially the volume
growth. This reflects large price differential to core districts, cities’ expansion beyond core areas, combined
with infrastructure (metro, high speed rail) and likely policy impact.

3. Overall Trends: Higher Prices, Lower Volumes, Greater Dispersion

Compared to the study results in 2016 and 2015, 2017 shows the prices have gone up but the volumes declined,
while the spread of performance among districts widened, even though there were fewer outliers compared to
last year.

Predictive Powers Of Data Driven Analysis?

"The results match our earlier forecasts. Participants of our 5th annual China Property Outlook conference in January this year would recall how we presented back then Chongqing as the single city highlight for 2017, and it shows our analytical framework can be highly predictive", comments Robert Ciemniak, the Founder-CEO of Real Estate Foresight.

Why do we look at districts? Ciemniak adds, “Sizes of Chinese districts are large, making many look like what elsewhere would be considered a standalone city. The performance of districts with manufacturing plants or high-tech zones may be entirely dependent on the performance and outlook for the industries and supply chains operating there, and driving demand for local housing. City-level analysis does not capture that."


Real Estate Foresight is a leading China-focused independent real estate analytics, research and financial technology firm based in Hong Kong and established in 2012. Combining data science and technology with primary research, Real Estate Foresight helps foreign investors and fund managers assess opportunities in real estate markets through the most granular research on China's housing markets.

Services include the flagship China Forecast monthly research program, as well as bespoke market studies for due diligence and operational project decisions. Real Estate Foresight provides independent views as the company is not involved in any brokerage, trading or fund business.

For more information about Real Estate Foresight:


-stay connected @reforesight onTwitter (

-check the recent media mentions about Real Estate Foresight (,

Real Estate Foresight is also present on Bloomberg (page REFC), Thomson Reuters, and Smartkarma research platforms.

Contact: research(at)realestateforesight(dot)com

Share article on social media or email:

View article via:

Pdf Print

Contact Author

Robert Ciemniak
Follow >
Visit website