BMI Research: Global Electric Vehicles Sales to Grow Fivefold in 10 Years

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Electric vehicle (EV) sales will top 5.1 million units by 2027 and account for 5% of global car sales, according to new 10-year forecasts from BMI Research, a Fitch Group Company.

“In 10 years, sales of battery powered cars will outpace hybrids by about two to one," said Anna-Marie Baisden, Head of Autos Analysis, BMI Research.

BMI Research, a Fitch Group Company – Electric vehicle (EV) sales will top 5.1 million units by 2027 and account for 5% of global car sales, according to new 10-year forecasts from BMI Research, a Fitch Group Company. The new forecast data set provides granular sales and fleet forecasting across 52 countries where electric vehicles are sold for both battery electric vehicles (BEV) and plug-in hybrid vehicles (PHEV).

“EV is a nascent industry, and it’s no surprise that developed markets with strict fuel economy standards lead market coverage, but these markets don’t always have the highest adoption rates,” said Anna-Marie Baisden, Head of Autos Analysis, BMI Research. “In 10 years, sales of battery powered cars will outpace hybrids by about two to one, and fleet penetration, which is now evenly distributed between both, will also lean towards battery vehicles.”

EVs will account for 5% of global car sales by 2027, of which BEVs will account for 3.4 million in sales outpacing PHEV sales of 1.7 million. The global EV fleet will grow sevenfold over 10 years to 2027 to 26.8 million but account for less than 2% of the global car fleet.

U.S. EV sales are expected to stay below 3% of new sales by 2027. Canada, which has a similar product mix, is forecast at 3.7% due to better incentives. Norway (78%), Iceland (45%) and Sweden (27%) are the top three markets globally for EV penetration of new sales by 2027. All three fit a profile of affluent smaller Developed European markets with supportive incentives where it is easier to renew the fleet. However, shifting policies have historically impacted sales. Netherlands reported negative numbers for PHEVs in 2017 as consumers returned them when a change of policy meant they were no longer viable.

“Electric vehicle adoption in emerging markets will be challenging absent incentives and centralized support for the industry,” added Baisden.

China is the only emerging market in the top 10 for EV penetration, and yet EVs only accounts for 3.6% of the total auto fleet even with a high level of centralized support for the EV sector. Emerging markets have a higher ratio of BEV sales to PHEVs. Poland and Turkey are the only exceptions. In Poland the split is much more even with PHEVs slightly taking the edge, while in Turkey it is 65%/35% in favor of PHEVs. Higher BEV ratios in emerging markets could be down to skipping ahead to full BEVs or because they do not have the stricter standards to meet that require more models on offer with a greater range of fuel efficiency/low emissions.

The Electric Vehicle 10 Year Forecasts data set provides detailed country-level data for all markets where electric vehicles are sold. Projections are based on:

-- The number and type of incentives for the uptake of EVs
-- The likely development of household income
-- Other autos sector data, typically domestic vehicle sales
-- The likely development of national real GDP and nominal GDP
-- Trends in historical data
-- Eight year life cycle of an EV (in line with most manufacturers’ warranties)
-- The likely development of total EV sales

The data set and the article, “Top 10 Themes from Global Electric Vehicles Forecasts,” is available at http://www.bmiresearch.com.

About BMI Research:

BMI Research is an independent provider of country risk and industry analysis, covering 22 industries and 200 global markets. A unit of Fitch Group’s information services business, BMI Research is committed to delivering comprehensive data, analytics and forecasting solutions to help improve the financial and operational performance of its clients. The world’s most renowned financial institutions, corporations and governments rely on BMI’s macroeconomic and political risk coverage, breadth of industry data and financial market analysis to inform their decision making. http://www.bmiresearch.com

About Fitch Group:

Fitch Group is a leading independent provider of essential financial information and services to the global financial markets, including credit ratings, research, analytical tools, data, and education. With operations in more than 30 countries, Fitch Group is comprised of: Fitch Ratings, a global leader in credit ratings and research; Fitch Solutions, a leading provider of credit market data, analytical tools and risk services; BMI Research, an independent provider of country risk and industry analysis specializing in emerging and frontier markets; and Fitch Learning, a preeminent training and professional development firm. Fitch Group is majority owned by Hearst.

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Hannah James
Fitch Group
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Peter Hoflich
BMI Research, a Fitch Group Company
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