Hamline University Professor Announces Second Edition of Presidential Swing States, declaring the 2020 Presidential Race Effectively Already Over in 38 States

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Hamline University Professor David Schultz announces the second edition of his book, Presidential Swing States, arguing that the 2020 presidential race is effectively over already in 38 states, leaving it up to about 10 percent of the voters in 23 counties, located in twelves states, who will pick the next president of the United States.

David Schultz

The key to understanding the 2020 race is 10/23/12/270–Ten percent of the (swing) voters in 23 counties located in 12 states will decide who gets the 270 electoral votes necessary to win the presidency.

Hamline University professor David Schultz, noted expert on American politics, announced the forthcoming publication of the second edition of his Presidential Swing States. In this new edition he argues that the 2020 presidential race is effectively already over in 38 states, with the choice of who will be the next president to be decided by a handful of swing voters located in 23 swing counties within 12 swing states. In effect, four numbers–10/23/12/270–potentially tell everything one needs to know about the 2020 presidential election.

Published by Lexington Books, the second edition of Presidential Swing States is jointly edited by David Schultz and Rafael Jacob of Temple University. The book is updated with results from the 2016 election, and it features chapters written by leading scholars on the swing states that decided that election, along with forecasting those states that will serve as the ones which will decide the 2020 presidential election.

According to Schultz: “The race to winning the presidency is not about the popular vote, it is about getting 270 electoral votes. From 1988 to 2012, the balance of power in US presidential races centered on approximately ten states. Republicans were likely to win 23 states totally 191 electoral votes and the Democrats winning 18 states and the District of Columbia totally 232 electoral votes. There were ten swing states–Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Virginia, and Wisconsin–totaling 115 electoral votes that hold the balance of power. In 2016 Michigan and Pennsylvania became swing states, while New Mexico dropped off the list. Now going into 2020 there are approximately 12 states that look like swingers, with others such as Arizona, Maine, and Minnesota potentially moving in that direction. The goal of the book is to explain why a handful of states are the ones that really decide the election.

Presidential Swing States features chapters on each of the swing states, authored by experts on that state. Besides chapters on swing states, the book also features a chapter on swing counties authored by Professor Schultz. “My research indicates that there are a few swing voters located in 23 swing counties found in 12 states that potentially will decide who is the next president of the United States. If the presidency is about winning 270 electoral votes, then the key to understanding the 2020 race is 10/23/12/270–Ten percent of the (swing) voters in 23 counties located in 12 states will decide who gets the 270 electoral votes necessary to win the presidency. The reduction of the outcome of the election to a few number of voters in a few counties in a few states speaks to the degree of political polarization present in America today.”

David Schultz is a professor of political science at Hamline University. He has taught classes on American government and election law for nearly 30 years. A three-time Fulbright scholar and winner of the Leslie A. Whittington national award for excellence in public affairs teaching, David Schultz is the author and editor of 35 books and 150 articles on American politics and law and is a frequently quoted political analyst in the local, national, and international media.

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David Schultz, Professor, [email protected]
Hamline University, St Paul, MN
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