Dallas Real Estate Economy Bolstered By Forecasts of Major National Home Sales Growth, Construction Into 2015

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Prudential Texas Properties reports that just as the North Texas real estate economy is experiencing the finale to its finest year on record, a major national economic report has surfaced pointing to a continued growth in both new home construction and pre-existing home sales that could serve as the perfect 2014 encore to what has been one of the nation’s hottest markets all year.

Equal Housing Opportunity

Equal Housing Opportunity

As winter kicks into gear and the market takes a bit of a breather, reports like this serve not only as a reminder of what this market has accomplished in 2013, but also how much potential for growth it still holds.

Just when it seemed like the North Texas real estate market was finally cooling off, a major national economic forecast emerged in recent weeks projecting both massive sales volume increases on pre-existing homes as well as an uptick of construction on new homes over the next few years. This comes in the wake of the Dallas Morning News announcing in a December 10 article that North Texas’ pre-existing home sales volume was up 18 percent year over year from the end of November 2012. And furthermore, all this is happening at a time when the Dallas home market has bested its pre-recession home values, with the median list price of $319,945—as of a December 9 report from real estate analytics company Altos Research—up more than $50,000 from the beginning of the year.

Click here to see a 60-second Dallas real estate market update.

But those aren’t even the numbers that have both the real estate community and interested investors buzzing. A late-November report from the University of Michigan’s economic department predicted national home construction and sales volume rates to grow at unprecedented levels. In its report, U of M’s Daniil Manaenkov of the Research Seminar in Quantitative Economics concluded that construction of new homes could rise from about 920,000 by the end of 2013 to 1.2 million in 2014 and up to 1.5 million for the year of 2015. Manaenkov also predicted that approximately 4.6 million pre-existing homes will be sold this year, 4.9 million will be sold in 2014 and 5.2 million will sell in 2015.

And the direct correlations that one can draw from these national forecasts to what has been one of the country’s most prosperous real estate economies throughout 2013 should instill a great amount of confidence in North Texas home buyers, sellers and real estate contractors. As DD Flynn, Vice President of Marketing with Prudential Texas Properties says: “The North Texas home market is one that is arguably unrivaled in terms of the way it overcame the low points of the recession. As winter kicks into gear and the market takes a bit of a breather, reports like this serve not only as a reminder of what this market has accomplished in 2013, but also how much potential for growth it still holds.”

As far as evidence to support Flynn’s claim goes, the National Association of Realtors® (NAR) has been predicting in its REALTORS® Confidence Index for the past several months that Texas home values will appreciate at a rate alongside the nation’s highest states in 2014, with NAR’s most recent November 21 survey predicting a 4.2 to 8 percent value increase on the average Texas home.

Another healthy outcome for the North Texas market, were it to at least loosely follow the growth projected in the U of M study, is that the extremely low level of Dallas home inventory could be reinforced. Case in point: The 2,176 Dallas properties listed as for sale in Altos’ December 9 report is the lowest figure the market has seen since February, and buyers are clamoring for an opportunity to crack into this desirable and often-exclusive market. As Flynn says, citing Altos figures: “Demand has outweighed supply in this market since very early on in the year. An increase in new home construction could only help continue to provide an economic wellspring in an area where buyers have been lining up to get into new Dallas homes all year long. This growth would not only invigorate buyer confidence, but the North Texas economy at large.”

©2013 BRER Affiliates LLC. An independently owned and operated broker member of BRER Affiliates, LLC. Prudential, the Prudential logo and the Rock symbol are registered service marks of Prudential Financial, Inc. and its related entities, registered in many jurisdictions worldwide. Used under license with no other affiliation with Prudential. Prudential Texas Properties is an independently owned and operated member of BRER Affiliates LLC. Equal Housing Opportunity.

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Kyle Fitzsimmons
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