Fisher Investments on the Presidential Debate

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Fisher Investments releases new commentary recapping the Sept 26 presidential debate with analysis on how this year’s election could affect the stock market.

After the much-hyped debate between presidential candidates Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump, Fisher Investments released new commentary putting the debate in perspective, and more importantly, explaining what this year’s election might mean for investors.

While presidential debates often get plenty of attention—this debate was one of the most watched in history—historically they have rarely impacted election outcomes or had any long-term market impact. The media will debate which candidate or party they believe will be best for the economy and stocks. But in reality, Fisher Investments believes neither will do as much as people fear, nor will either be inherently worse for stocks.

The important thing to understand is how this year’s election, and the events that follow, could affect the stock market in subsequent years. Fisher Investments has analyzed the market implications of presidential elections over the last century and discovered some important trends. When Republicans win, stocks typically do better in the election year, as pro-business campaign rhetoric inflates investors’ hopes, then perform below average in the inaugural year as the new president moderates and disappoints those lofty expectations. Conversely, when Democrats win, stocks usually notch below-average returns in the election year as investors fret anti-business campaign pledges, then surprise nicely the following year as the Democratic president also moderates, exceeding investors’ low expectations.

“Whether Mrs. Clinton is elected president or whether Mr. Trump is elected president, all of this is likely to feed into this ongoing long, grinding, relatively joyless bull market that is what we’ve been seeing and what we envision continuing—at least for a little while,” said Fisher Investments Founder Ken Fisher.

For more insight, please visit the following link: https://www.fisherinvestments.com/market-insights/politics/market-perspectives-on-the-2016-us-presidential-debates-hillary-clinton-vs-donald-trump

Note: Our political discussion is non-partisan and we analyze politics solely for market impact, as markets prefer no candidate, party or ideology. Political bias is a blinding behavioral investing error.

About Fisher Investments

Fisher Investments is an independent, fee-only investment adviser founded in 1979. Fisher Investments maintains four principal business units: Fisher Investments Institutional Group, Fisher Investments Private Client Group, Fisher Investments 401(k) Solutions Group and Fisher Investments International Group, which serve a global client base of diverse investors. Founder Ken Fisher is the longest continuously running columnist for Forbes, and has authored several New York Times bestselling books on finance and investing. For more information, please visit http://www.fisherinvestments.com.

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David Eckerly
Fisher Investments
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