Twin Cities Housing Market Predicts National Home Price Trends

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Study concludes that the Twin Cities housing market predicts national home price trends according to findings by Trulia. Home Destination, a Minneapolis residential real estate agent with RE/MAX Results comments on the report and why the Twin Cities housing market is a national leader.

Twin Cities Housing Market Predicts National Home Price Trends

Twin Cities Housing Market Predicts National Home Price Trends

"Pay extra attention to Minneapolis-St. Paul home prices – they are the best local indicator of what will happen to national home prices one year later." ~ Trulia

A new Trulia study of 100 sizable metros put under the magnifying glass came up with what they term “The Crystal Ball Award” and announced that “the housing market with the highest crystal-ball score is Minneapolis-St. Paul”. Truila findings show that the Twin Cities housing market predicts national home price trends, since their year-over-year changes run a little bit ahead of national home price trends.

"The Twin Cities housing market has an even keel aspect about it that makes it a market leader. While the Minneapolis/St. Paul residential real estate market has been impacted similarly with national shifts, overall it continues at a slow and steady pace in its progress upwards," says Jenna Thuening, owner of Home Destination. "The fact that it has fewer swings remarkably in one direction or the other is one aspect that makes investors trust It as a lead indicator."

The study sought to determine which housing markets can be attributed as national leaders that trend ahead of other metros as key indicators of home price trends. Price adjustments were examined between 1980 and 2014 in the 100 largest U.S. metros and the U.S. overall, using theFederal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) home-price index. According to Truila , the crystal-ball score that they create for each metro is drawn from the correlation between the year-over-year home price change in that metro with the year-over-year home price change for the U.S. overall one year later. In simple wording, it matches how closely a local market home prices eb and flow when compared with national ups and downs one year later.

Gaining bellwether recognition is: San Diego, Ventura County, and Sacramento in California; West Palm Beach and 3 additional Florida metros; Washington, DC; and St. Louis, MO. In general, these markets had a more severe housing bust last decade and faster historical price growth over the past three decades than other markets. Being able to take claim for a milder bust over housing markets in California and Florida, St. Louis, Washington, the real estate recovery Minneapolis-St. Paul, St. Louis and Washington are recognized for their strength and stability.

The latest S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city home price index report posted Tuesday talks of a new two year drop in home prices on a national level. This let slip the previous 28 consecutive month of year-over-year improvements in the CoreLogic Home Price Index (HPI), following June’s gains of 7.5 percent. Minnesota ranked 20th out of the top 25 states placing for YOY Highest appreciating home values. The 12-month HPI change is 6.1%, the 3-month change is 4.3% and the 1-month change is 1.3%.

Both reports confirm two other specific areas of notable real estate price adjustments in the Twin Cities, which include:

  •     Higher priced homes feel the least amount in price-adjustment nationally, standing at 9.8 % below peak.
  •     Demand for single-family condos is high and pushing prices upwards.

"For home buyers this may mean that some find their buying power has shifted to homes priced a little lower than they were originally searching for, but they can feel confident of home equity gains over time," comments Thuening. The stability this indicates within the Twin Cities housing market will likely gain investor attention once again. For home sellers, knowing that metro home prices run ahead of national trends helps them feel confident of decisions to move their equity to another home.

About Home Destination - Twin Cities Real Estate:
Home Destination offers a loyal and committed real estate professional service that personally handles all the details of selling or purchasing a Twin Cities home. Highly regarded by peers as a Minneapolis metro expert for over 15 years, gain a skilled representative as guide to make the best possible housing decisions.

Jenna Thuening
Email. jenna(at)homedestination(dot)com
Tel. 612-396-7832

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Jenna Thuening

Jeannie Hill
since: 12/2011
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