Canadian Climate Change Predictions Fail by 590% Costing Global Consumers a Bundle says Friends of Science Study

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A new Friends of Science study by research director Ken Gregory shows that the Canadian climate model CanESM2, used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to predict global warming, fails to replicate temperature observations by hundreds of percent – predicting extreme heat when the reality observed is only nominal warming.

canadian climate model CanESM2

Canadian climate model simulations of mid-troposphere 400 mbar tropical temperatures and two datasets of observations

These huge errors render the projections useless

Friends of Science have released a new in-depth study of the predictive climate models of the Canadian Centre for Climate Modeling and Analysis (CCCma) located at the University of Victoria in British Columbia. The CCCma is a division of Environment Canada’s Climate Research Branch.

“Taxpayers in Canada should be appalled at how their money has ended up funding faulty science that has driven climate change terror around the world,” says Ken Gregory, director of Friends of Science.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) used the Canadian model to claim dangerous climate change and global warming were imminent. Friends of Science study reveals that the faulty Canadian computer models have led to climate change policies that have wasted trillions of taxpayers’ dollars on a non-existent problem.

The study titled "The Canadian Climate Model's Epic Failure" is on the Friends of Website here and was also published on the award-winning website "Watts Up With That?" here.

Gregory compared the Canadian models against observed temperatures and found the Canadian model produces one of the most extreme warming and most faulty projections of all the 30 models evaluated by the IPCC.

Canadian Climate model simulations were compared to the actual temperature records of near-surface air measurements, weather balloon measurements, satellite measurements and the average trends.
Six graphs in the study show the Canadian CanESM2 climate model simulations dramatically diverge from the real temperatures.

“The modeled prediction of global near-surface temperature warming rate is 226% of the measurements – far too high,” says Gregory. See here.

“In the tropics, the Canadian predictions are extremely far off,” says Gregory, pointing to a predicted temperature model trend over the tropics at 7 km altitude that is 690% of the actual trend based on satellite measurements, from 1979 to today. See here.

The Canadian model near-surface tropical temperature trend is 300% of the average of the three observational trends. See here.

In much of the southern hemisphere, the near-surface modeled temperature tend is in the opposite direction from the measurements, which show cooling.

“These huge errors render the projections useless,” says Gregory. “They are terrifying, but completely inaccurate. Global warming stopped 16 years ago. Models that are this far off are useless for setting public policy.”

Climate alarmism has already cost global taxpayers $1.6 trillion and pushed taxpayers into ‘heat-or-eat’ poverty in the UK.

Friends of Science Society wants governments to abandon using faulty climate computer models for setting public policy on climate change until they are changed to match the observations as is required by the Scientific Method.

Gregory points out, "Politicians design energy policies, carbon taxes and GHG reduction strategies based on faulty science; taxpayers suffer when the Scientific Method is ignored."

Friends of Science state that the sun is the main driver of climate change, not carbon dioxide or human activity. Join Friends of Science as a membership or Facebook friend online.

About Friends of Science
Friends of Science have spent a decade reviewing a broad spectrum of literature on climate change and have concluded the sun is the main driver of climate change, not carbon dioxide (CO2). The core group of the Friends of Science is made up of retired earth and atmospheric scientists.

Friends of Science
P.O.Box 23167, Connaught P.O.
Calgary, Alberta
Canada T2S 3B1

Toll-free Telephone: 1-888-789-9597
E-mail: contact(at)

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Michelle Stirling
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