Catastrophe Modelers from TigerRisk Explain What to Watch for During This Hurricane Season

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Last year's hurricane season was supposed to be mild. Instead, it was wild. Climate scientists explain what to look for this year.

Last year’s hurricane forecast called for a mild season. With 17 named storms, 10 hurricanes and 6 major hurricanes, it was anything but.

This year, scientists forecast an “average” to “slightly above average” season: 10-18 named storms, 4-10 hurricanes and 2-5 major hurricanes. Will they be right?

“Conditions over the Atlantic are constantly changing, and each forecast is based on other forecasts, so accurately predicting a hurricane season is not easy to say the least,” says Anna Neely a Research and Development Analyst at TigerRisk, a leading risk, capital and strategic advisor to the insurance industry. “But there are indicators that can give us an idea of what to expect.”

TigerRisk listed a few early indicators to watch:

  • Sea surface temperatures can enhance hurricane development as they rise.
  • El Nino/La Nina (ENSO) which characterizes conditions in the Tropical Pacific as warm and wet (El Nino) or cool and dry (La Nina). El Nino conditions increase atmospheric stability in the Atlantic, hindering hurricane formation. La Nina decreases atmospheric stability and thus enhances hurricane formation.
  • Wind shear is the change in wind speed with height. High wind shear is associated with El Nino conditions. As wind shear increases, it deters storm organization and decreases overall hurricane activity.

“2017 was a reminder of what is possible during a hurricane season with activity levels not seen in many years,” says Bhaskar Chattaraj, head of Research and Development. “The season was much more intense than anyone had predicted. Hindsight offers us the ability to learn from our mistakes, and further tailor our view of risk.”

The Research and Development team at TigerRisk has created a summary of pre-season forecasts “2018 Hurricane Season Outlook” as well as a detailed “2017 Catastrophes in Review” retrospective that not only covers 2017 hurricanes, but other catastrophes such as monsoons, wildfires, earthquake and the possible effects of global warming. The 2017 report also includes a chapter on man-made catastrophes such as cybercrime, terrorism and mass violence.

To download a free copy of TigerRisk’s “2018 Hurricane Season Outlook” + “2017 Catastrophes in Review” click here: (http://www.tigerrisk.com/pdfs/TigerRisk-2018-HU-Season-Outlook-2017-CAT-Review-5-29-18_FINAL.pdf).

Keep an eye out for further 2018 Hurricane Season updates from TigerRisk (http://www.tigerrisk.com).
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TigerRisk Partners is a leading risk, capital and strategic adviser to the insurance and reinsurance industries. TigerRisk Capital Markets & Advisory (TCMA), a broker dealer registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, a member of FINRA and a member of SIPC, is a wholly owned subsidiary providing clients strategic advice on mergers, acquisitions, capital markets products and transactions. Headquartered in Stamford, CT., TigerRisk has offices in New York, Bermuda, London, Hong Kong, Minneapolis, Chicago and Raleigh.

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Ansi Vallens
S&S
+1 (518) 392 4238
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Kerry Nash
TigrRisk
(952) 224-0228
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