CLEVELAND (PRWEB) June 09, 2020
A new survey of 1,006 Americans reveals that up to 22% of those identifying as Republicans may not vote actually for President Trump come November 3rd.
The random survey was commissioned by Lucky Star Communications, an Ohio based consulting firm, and conducted by Opinion Research Corp. International /ENGINE INSIGHTS of Princeton, New Jersey. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3%. The poll was taken June 3-5.
In the survey, respondents were asked to identify themselves into the categories of "Republican" and "Republican But Maybe Not for Trump." In the survey, 25% self-identified themselves as Republicans -- and 22% of those Republicans indicated that they were "not necessarily" supporters of President Trump.
By community, 20% of the Republican "Maybe Not Trumpers" were from urban areas, while 62 percent were from suburban areas and 18% are from rural areas.
"The suburbs have long been identified as problem areas for Pres. Trump, but never before has a precise number been put on it," said Jeff Barge, president of Lucky Star and self-styled "citizen-journalist."
Over the weekend, Trump met with political advisors deeply concerned about Trump's "brutal internal polling," according to Axios. Said one participant, "The messaging that works for the red-MAGA-hat base doesn't resonate with independents.
A new poll by Fox News says that Ohio is now considered a battleground state for Trump, with Democrat Joe Biden leading by two points there. Iowa, Arizona, Texas, Georgia, and Wisconsin, won by Trump last time, are now considered "in play."
Separated by sex, 59% of the Republican "Maybe Not Trumpers" were male, and 41% were female.
By age, Trump's major challenge seems to be retaining those aged 55 to 64, a group which makes up 22% of Republican "Maybe Not Trumpers." He seems most solid in the 65+ age group, which makes up only 8% of those Republicans who might be on the fence.
Eighty-seven percent of the potential Trump deserters are white, 0% are Black, and 12% are Asian. Overall, 9% of these “Maybe Not Trump” respondents consider themselves to be Hispanic/Spanish/Latino.
Political experts have long identified the U.S. economy as the key factor in determining the outcome of this fall's presidential race. If the economy is good, they say, Trump is likely to win.
But several aspects of Trump's personal character seem to differentiate him in the eyes of regular Republicans and Republican "Maybe Not Trumpers" -- and that may be having an effect on their decisions.
While 33% of regular Republicans surveyed believe that "one of more conspiracies" are being carried out against Pres. Trump by what they call "The Deep State," only 7% of Republican "Maybe Not Trumpers" believe this conspiracy theory.
And while only 22% of regular Republicans believe that Trump "at least occasionally" tells lies, that figure more than doubles to 48% of Republican "Maybe Not Trumpers."
"Trump's many lies and numerous conspiracy theories may be sabotaging his effort to win more moderate Republican voters," said Barge. "It's all very 'Bull in the China Shop,' as his Ohio ads now portray him."
Confirming that theory, former Republican Secretary of State Colin Powell over the weekend announced he will vote for Biden this fall. About Trump: "He lies. He lies about things and gets away with it because people will not hold him accountable."
In a further rebuke, former Republican Pres. George W. Bush and Republican Senator Mitch Romney have also announced they won't back Trump's re-election.
Contact: Jeff Barge 773 485 3884