Developing nations want the focus of the COP27 Sharm El-Sheikh climate conference to focus on financial climate reparations for extreme weather disasters, a conflation that is not supported by data, says Friends of Science. WMO "State of Climate Services" report appears to rely on the implausible RCP 8.5 scenario, without which the 'climate emergency' disappears and there is no need to race to NetZero.
CALGARY, Alberta, Oct. 20, 2022 /PRNewswire-PRWeb/ -- As the COP27 UN Climate Conference approaches in Sharm El-Sheikh, Egypt (Nov 6-18, 2022), developing nations are jostling for 'loss and damage' climate reparations to dominate discussions, as reported by the Financial Times, Oct. 09, 2022, demands which are unlikely to be met, says Friends of Science Society.
Referring to a commentary by Robert Lyman, former Canadian public servant of 27 years and diplomat for 10 years, Friends of Science points out the unrealistic scope of demands.
"For years, the agreed target [for climate aid to developing nations] was $100 billion per year up to 2025, a target that was never reached. (In 2021, it is estimated that the richer countries provided about $75 billion in various forms of bilateral and multilateral climate aid). India, probably the largest single recipient, announced in 2021 that it would not even think about meeting the emissions reductions proposed in its national plan without an up-front commitment of at least one trillion dollars from donors. The African Group, after using the Global Environment Facility's financing ratio, concluded that developed countries should contribute "at least" US $1.3 trillion per year between 2025 and 2030, with further increases beyond that time."
Lyman's analysis continues:
"If the apportionment of payment obligations were done on the basis of the Gross Domestic Products of the countries concerned, the United States' share could be 30%, or US $390 billion per year. That is about half what the United States now spends annually on Medicare."
"Similarly, Canada's share could be 3%, but 3% of US $1.3 trillion is today about $54 billion per year in Canadian dollars. That is two thirds as high as the Canadian federal government's $84 billion equalization payments to the provinces. It is also about $1400 per year for every Canadian."
These are unreasonable expectations, and unnecessary in light of the data. Lyman pointed out such challenges in 2015 in "Who Cuts? Who Pays? Show me the Money!"
Friends of Science Society offers this short video "Things Are Getting Better" which cites peer-reviewed studies showing that common claims about extreme weather and disasters are untrue. A slower read entitled "Climate Catastrophe Headlines" is also available.
Meanwhile the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has issued its "State of Climate Services" report which appears to rely on the outdated science and implausible climate scenario known as RCP 8.5. This set of scenarios refers to Representative Concentration Pathways – or the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere and its resulting assumed warming effect.
Curiously, the WMO has become a promoter of renewables rather than adaptation and preparedness, says Friends of Science Society. There is peer-reviewed research indicating that wind and solar actually cause Carbonless Anthropogenic Global Warming – "…solar panels are likely causing increasing rates of incoming heat intake, which results in extra heat added to the Earth system. Wind turbines are likely causing decreasing rates of heat dissipation or cooling, which also increases the heat energy retained by the Earth system."
Friends of Science Society says that CLINTEL's World Climate Declaration offers a more realistic view of the natural and human impacts on climate change than that of the WMO.
The National Association of Scholars hosted a presentation by Roger Pielke, Jr. who showed that the scenarios the banking industry's Network for Greening the Financial System (NGFS) is employing in climate stress-testing are "wildly implausible and of questionable practical utility."
Friends of Science says that without the implausible scenarios RCP 8.5 and 6, the perceived climate emergency is over. They have issued open letters to the Bank of Canada on this matter in the past, and also reanalyzed Royal Bank of Canada's claims that decarbonization of Canada would only cost $2 trillion. This is wildly underestimated, says Friends of Science: "The cost to provide enough storage for one cold winter day in Alberta would be C$69 billion. Unfortunately, this wouldn't be nearly enough. We would need weeks, if not months, of storage to maintain a reliable grid. The costs would be in the C$100's of billions if not trillions of dollars."
A Friends of Science Society blog post by Samuel Furfari cautions about the new risks related to energy security and safety in the wake of the Nord Stream 1 and 2 attacks; another post by Belgian engineer Rob Lemeire encourages people to prepare psychologically and practically for electricity blackouts.
"In the Dark on Renewables" is a helpful Friends of Science report and video on the negative impact renewables have on a stable power grid.
About
Friends of Science Society is an independent group of earth, atmospheric and solar scientists, engineers, and citizens that is celebrating its 20th year of offering climate science insights. After a thorough review of a broad spectrum of literature on climate change, Friends of Science Society has concluded that the sun is the main driver of climate change, not carbon dioxide (CO2).
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