Forecast International Projects the Turbofan Engine Market Will Begin to Recover Next Year

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Forecast International projects the delivery of 105,730 new turbofan engines during 2020-2034, with production growing from a low of 4,331 engines in 2020 to a peak of 7,933 in 2029.

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The most significant drivers in the civil market continue to be the demand for civil airliners, particularly in the narrowbody segment.

The outlook for the aviation turbofan market in 2020 has been severely damaged by the impact of COVID-19 on airline travel. Forecast International expects about 4,330 turbofans to be produced in 2020, a drop of 28.6 percent from 2019's output; however, production is expected to rise by about 15.3 percent, to 4,994 aircraft, in 2021.

Forecast International projects the delivery of 105,730 new turbofan engines during 2020-2034, with production growing from a low of 4,331 engines in 2020 to a peak of 7,933 in 2029.

Civil demand for turbofan engines continues to be the driving force in the market, accounting for nearly 89,590 engines, or 84.7 percent of the worldwide turbofan market overall. The value of this production at list prices will reach $1.128 trillion.

The most significant drivers in the civil market continue to be the demand for civil airliners, particularly in the narrowbody segment. Production for the airliner market, including widebody aircraft, will total 59,360 engines, representing 56 percent of the turbofan market overall.

Demand for the latest generation of aircraft from Airbus and Boeing fell precipitously in 2020 due to the impact of COVID-19, reducing demand for next-generation turbofans like General Electric's GEnx, Rolls-Royce's Trent XWB, CFM International's LEAP 1, and Pratt & Whitney's PurePower family.

Within the civil market segment, the second-largest source of demand is business jets (23,319 engines), followed by the market for regional jet aircraft (5,730 engines).

In the military segment of the turbofan market, production will total some 16,142 units worth $98.8 billion during 2020-2034. The military market is much smaller than the civil market, accounting for about 15.2 percent of unit production and 8 percent of its value. However, it is also largely unaffected by COVID 19.

Over 50 percent of the military turbofan market is composed of engines for fighter aircraft. Production of engines for the fighter market will increase in the near term before slowly declining after 2023. Production of engines for the jet trainer segment will account for substantially less of the military turbofan market, with production totaling some 1,750 units over the next 15 years.

Cruise missiles will also account for a big chunk of the military turbofan engine market in terms of numbers produced, with 4,315 small turbofans forecast for production to equip these weapons. The value of production of these small, low-power engines is relatively tiny; they will account for less than 1 percent of the market overall.

Only six manufacturers and their subsidiaries and joint ventures account for over 90 percent of unit production in the turbofan market overall, making the market highly concentrated in a few big players. These manufacturers are GE Aviation, Pratt & Whitney, Rolls-Royce, Safran Aircraft Engines, Williams International, and Honeywell International. Russian engine manufacturers have very little market penetration outside of their traditional military applications, and Chinese turbofans are so far limited to Chinese military aircraft programs.

About Forecast International
Forecast International, Inc. is a leading provider of Market Intelligence and Consulting in the areas of aerospace, defense, power systems and military electronics. Based in Newtown, Conn., USA, the company specializes in long-range industry forecasts and market assessments used by strategic planners, marketing professionals, military organizations, and governments worldwide. Forecast International also maintains a high posture of situational awareness and geopolitical analysis.

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Ray Peterson
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