AAEA members present research at ASSA
MILWAUKEE, Dec. 16, 2025 /PRNewswire-PRWeb/ -- AAEA invites media to attend their sessions at the ASSA 2026 Annual Meeting in Philadelphia, PA.
On Monday, January 5, 2026 at 8:00 am – 10:00 am (EST) at the Marriott Philadelphia Downtown, three AAEA members will speak at the session "GLP-1 Drugs and Food Demand "
Presentations in this session include (speakers are listed first):
Characteristics and Food Consumption for Current, Previous, and Potential Consumers of GLP-1s
- Brandon R. McFadden, University of Arkansas
- Andrew Dilley, University of Arkansas
- Saroj Adhikari, University of Arkansas
- Pratikshya Silwal, University of Arkansas
- Jayson L. Lusk, Oklahoma State University
Widespread adoption of Glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) agonists could cause significant changes in food consumption and preferences that disrupt the food industry. In this study, we survey four consumer groups to better understand how GLP-1s may affect food consumption and preferences. The four groups were: 1) consumers currently using a GLP-1, 2) consumers who have previously used a GLP-1, 3) consumers who haven't used a GLP-1 but plan to in the future, and 4) consumers who haven't used a GLP-1 and don't plan to in the future. Results show that consumers currently taking a GLP-1 consume significantly fewer calories than the other groups surveyed, and calorie reduction while taking a GLP-1 for weight loss could be around 720 to 990 calories. Additionally, those taking GLP-1s most likely reduce consumption of processed foods, sugar-sweetened beverages, refined grains, and beef. The results of this study will inform potential consumers and food companies of valuable insights into the broader effects of GLP-1s on caloric intake and food preferences.
Weight-loss Drugs Shedding Away Demand for Ultra-processed Foods
- Koroles Awad, Washington State University
- Jill J. McCluskey, Washington State University
- Mariah Ehmke, USDA
- Abigail Okrent, USDA
U.S. Obesity rates continue to rise even though average caloric intake has plateaued in recent years, prompting significant interest in identifying both underlying causes and effective interventions. One line of inquiry centers on the increased consumption of ultra-processed foods, which have been associated with poorer diet quality and higher all-cause mortality. Concurrently, glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) medications, originally developed to treat type-2 diabetes, have gained popularity for weight management due to their appetite-suppressing effects. These medications may not only reduce overall caloric intake but also shift users' food preferences. In this paper, we explore how initiating GLP-1 therapy affects household demand for foods grouped by their level of processing. We employ a rich dataset that merges household scanner data from 2020 to 2023 with pharmacy prescription data to identify when individuals begin taking GLP-1 medications. This linkage allows us to measure how households alter their purchasing patterns once they start using the medication. To classify purchased items, we rely on the NOVA Food Classification system, which consists of four categories: (1) unprocessed or minimally processed foods, (2) processed culinary ingredients, (3) processed foods, and (4) ultra-processed foods. We manually labeled 17,000 products and then trained a natural language model to classify the remainder of purchased products. We use the difference-in-differences approach proposed by Callaway and Sant'Anna (2020) to identify the causal effects by exploiting variation in the timing of GLP-1 medication initiation. Our results reveal a significant reduction in monthly household food expenditures of approximately $53 after the start of GLP-1 therapy. While spending declines in all four NOVA categories, we detect notable shifts in budget shares across these groups. Specifically, the share devoted to unprocessed or minimally processed foods increases by 3%, whereas the share allocated to ultra-processed foods decreases by 2%. The shares of processed culinary ingredients and processed.
GLP-1 Use and Protein Demand
- Justin D. Bina, Arizona State University
- Glynn T. Tonsor, Kansas State University
- Timothy J. Richards, Arizona State University
Consumers are increasingly using glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) receptor agonists to lose weight, and food manufacturers are changing the contents and marketing of their products in response. However, we know little about how the demand for food is changing as a result of GLP-1 use. Noting the prevalence of protein consumption in GLP-1-related discussions, this research focuses on how aggregate food spending and protein demand changes in response to GLP-1 use. Prior research suggests that these impacts may be confounded with other consumer characteristics and, as such, we estimate GLP-1 effects on protein demand by extending causal inference methods to structural food demand modeling. We obtain GLP-1 use information and choice data from a publicly-available survey. We use matching procedures to balance measured covariates between GLP-1 users and non-users. We then estimate the effects of GLP-1 use in an interval-censored model of food expenditures, a multinomial logit model of protein choice, and a protein-focused Almost Ideal Demand System. We find that GLP-1 use increases household food-away-from-home expenditures by $11.26 to $13.17 weekly but does not have statistically significant effects on food-at-home expenditures. Willingness-to-pay for protein products increases when using GLP-1 medications, with the magnitude of the effects varying across product and outlet. Further, we find smaller own-price elasticities for some products (i.e., own- price elasticities become up to 0.40 closer to zero). Our results indicate shift effects of GLP-1 use on protein demand and that causal inference methods can improve heterogeneity assessments in structural demand modeling.
If you are interested in complimentary press pass for ASSA, please contact Paityn Connolly at [email protected].
ABOUT AAEA: Established in 1910, the Agricultural & Applied Economics Association (AAEA) is the leading professional association for agricultural and applied economists, with 2,500 members in more than 60 countries. Members of the AAEA work in academic or government institutions as well as in industry and not-for-profit organizations, and engage in a variety of research, teaching, and outreach activities in the areas of agriculture, the environment, food, health, and international development. The AAEA publishes three journals, the Journal of the Agricultural and Applied Economics Association (an open access journal), the American Journal of Agricultural Economics and Applied Economic Perspectives & Policy, as well as the online magazine Choices and the online open access publication series Applied Economics Teaching Resources. To learn more, visit http://www.aaea.org.
Media Contact
Allison Ware, Agricultural & Applied Economics Association, 414-918-3190, [email protected], www.aaea.org
SOURCE Agricultural & Applied Economics Association
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