The Institute for Global Affairs Oversampled Rust Belt and Sun Belt Voters to Examine How Foreign Policy Will Impact the 2024 Election
NEW YORK, Sept. 24, 2024 /PRNewswire-PRWeb/ -- The Institute for Global Affairs (IGA) today released a new report revealing how Trump and Harris voters see America's role in the world. The report features new polling that highlights the complex and often conflicting views many Americans hold towards international engagement, particularly in swing states.
As the 2024 election nears, IGA and YouGov polled 1,835 voting-age Americans about their views on pressing foreign policy issues, such as the war in Ukraine, immigration, and Israel, as well as which candidate they trusted more to handle these geopolitical challenges. Their responses revealed important differences across parties, candidate preferences, generations, and regions.
"The path to the White House runs through states where voters are deeply skeptical of the foreign policy status quo and America's global footprint," said Mark Hannah, senior fellow with the Institute for Global Affairs. "Our data shows Kamala Harris has an edge on Donald Trump on foreign policy topics nationally, but in the six swing states we surveyed, Trump has the edge. With razor-thin margins expected, campaigns ignore these nuances at their peril."
Top takeaways include:
- Swing state voters trust Trump more on foreign policy: While a majority of Americans nationally trust Harris more to pursue a foreign policy that benefits Americans (53%), more Americans in swing states trust Trump to do the same (53%) and think he's more likely to end the wars in Ukraine and Gaza (58%), reform America's immigration system for the better (56%), and respond effectively if China attacks Taiwan (58%).
- Stark contrast on military presence: While 58% of Harris supporters think the US should maintain or increase its overseas troop presence, the same percentage of Trump supporters favor decreasing it. This divide is even more pronounced in Rust Belt states, where only 13% support increasing troop levels.
- Divided on Israel-Gaza policy: 66% of Democrats think the US should either end support for Israel's war effort or make that support conditional on a ceasefire, compared to only 39% of Republicans.
- Majority favor negotiated settlement in Ukraine: 66% of Americans think NATO countries, including the US, should push for a negotiated settlement to end the war in Ukraine. This view transcends party lines, with Republicans (70%) and Independents (71%) even more likely than Democrats (60%) to support this approach.
- Surprising hawkishness on Taiwan: Harris supporters are 18% more likely than Trump supporters to think the US should militarily defend Taiwan if attacked by China (47% vs. 40%). This challenges the conventional wisdom about the two candidates' foreign policy stances.
- Bipartisan support for congressional oversight: 75% of Americans, including majorities across party lines, believe the president should be required to gain congressional approval before ordering military action overseas. This view is even more prevalent in Rust Belt states (84%).
"Battlegrounds: How Trump and Harris Voters See America's Role in the World," was conducted online by YouGov, surveying 1,865 voting-age adults in the United States between August 15 and August 22, 2024, and included over-samples from key swing states in the Rust Belt (PA, MI, WI) and Sun Belt (GA, AZ, NV).
The report can be found online here: https://instituteforglobalaffairs.org/2024/09/vox-populi-battlegrounds/#full-report.
The Institute for Global Affairs is a non-partisan non-profit founded by founder Ian Bremmer and led by board chairman Zachary Karabell that pursues industry-leading research on geopolitics and global affairs, creates relevant, objective, fact-based content, tools, and programming, and partners around the world to drive awareness, increase understanding, and support action.
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SOURCE Institute for Global Affairs
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