New Home Sales Maintain Momentum, Up 45.8% Year-Over-Year According To Zonda

Share Article

Today, the experts at Zonda, the housing industry’s foremost advisors, released the New Home Pending Sales Index (PSI) for October 2020. The New Home PSI shows pending sales increased month-over-month and year-over-year across the United States. The index is a leading residential real estate indicator based on the number of new home sales contracts signed across the country.

Today, the experts at Zonda, the housing industry’s foremost advisors, released the New Home Pending Sales Index (PSI) for October 2020. The New Home PSI shows pending sales increased month-over-month and year-over-year across the United States. The index is a leading residential real estate indicator based on the number of new home sales contracts signed across the country.

The New Home PSI came in at 168.9 for October, representing a 45.8% increase from October 2019. On a month-over-month basis, new home sales rose by 0.8% from September.

“Housing demand is not letting up,” said Ali Wolf, chief economist at Zonda. “The best thing about the strength in today’s housing market is that it is largely fueled by real families looking to take advantage of low mortgage rates to fulfill their American Dream.”

Pending new home sales trended above October 2019 levels in every top market across the country.

The best new home markets in October were Raleigh, Denver, and Jacksonville; these were the same top three as last month. Builders in these markets are selling through homes at an exceptional rate, but they’ve also been busy pulling new permits. Raleigh, Denver, and Jacksonville fall within the top 15 of major markets with the most single-family permits pulled year-to-date. Furthermore, the local economies in Denver and Jacksonville are outperforming the national average, with an estimated 60% and 65% of all the jobs lost in March and April that are recovered, respectively. The national average is 54%.

“As COVID-19 hospitalizations rise and parts of the country start shutting down again, housing plays an even greater role in our life,” said Wolf. “Looking into 2021, however, some builders are expressing caution over the sustainability of the current growth rates due to limited inventory and some affordability concerns.”

New home data is susceptible to outsized swings in contract activity based on shifts in the number of actively selling communities. As a result, Zonda normalizes the data to ensure consistency across the index. The New Home PSI blends the cumulative sales of active or recently sold-out projects with the average sales rate per community, which adjusts for fluctuations in supply. Furthermore, the New Home PSI is seasonally adjusted based on each markets’ specific seasonality and removes outliers. The index is baselined to 100 for June 2016. Today’s national New Home PSI is 69% above the base level.

The next Zonda New Home PSI press release, featuring November 2020 data, will be issued on Monday, Dec. 21, 2020 at 9 a.m. ET.

Methodology
The Zonda New Home Pending Sales Index (PSI) is built on proprietary, industry-leading data that covers 60% of the production new home market across the United States. Reported number of new home pending contracts are gathered and analyzed each month. Released on the 15th business day of each month, the New Home PSI is a leading indicator of housing demand compared to closings because it is based on the number of signed contracts at a new home community. Zonda monitors 18,000 active communities in the country and the homes tracked can be in any stage of construction.

The new home market represents roughly 10% of all transactions, allowing little movements in supply to cause outsized swings in market activity. As a result, the New Home PSI blends the cumulative sales of activity recently sold out projects with the average sales rate per community, which adjusts for fluctuations in supply. Furthermore, the New Home PSI is seasonally adjusted based on each markets’ specific seasonality, removes outliers, and uses June 2016 as the base month. The foundation of the index is a monthly survey conducted by Zonda. It is necessary to monitor both new and existing home sales to establish an accurate picture of the relative health of the residential real estate market.

About Zonda
Zonda provides data-driven housing market solutions to the homebuilding and multifamily industries. From builders to building product manufacturers, mortgage clients, and multifamily executives, we work hand-in-hand with our customers to streamline access to housing data to empower smarter decisions. As a leading brand in residential construction, our mission is to advance the home building industry, because we believe better homes mean better lives and stronger communities. Together, we are building the future of housing.

Share article on social media or email:

View article via:

Pdf Print

Contact Author

Jessica Brewer
Zonda
9162243047
Email >
Visit website