New NPG Paper Sees Yale Study as Legitimate Source of Immigration Data

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Analysis of Yale Study Shows Higher Number of Illegal Immigrants in Comparison to Analyses Completed by Other Groups

As the nation slowly begins to heal from pandemic-driven circumstances, Negative Population Growth (NPG) has published a new Forum paper discussing the number of illegal immigrants in the United States. Titled Yale Researchers Debunk the Myth of 11 Million Illegal Immigrants, author Edwin S. Rubenstein begins by spotlighting two widely accepted “truths”: a. there are currently 11 million illegal immigrants in the U.S. and b. Pew Research Center (PRC) is the source of this information. He then introduces the reader to a new study published by three Yale-affiliated researchers, which suggests “all the perceptions and arguments based on that figure [11 million] have a faulty foundation; the actual population of undocumented immigrants residing in the country is much larger, perhaps twice as high, and has been underestimated for decades.” Adding, “Applying their mathematical models to a range of demographic and immigration data, Yale researchers estimated that 22.1 million illegal immigrants resided in the U.S. in 2016.”

Although the difference (10.1 million!) between PRC’s count and the Yale study is significant, Rubenstein notes the problem lies within the Census data itself due to their formula, which accounts for missing information. Focusing mainly on Yale’s work, Rubenstein addresses the inherent value of the Yale study, stating: “The Yale researchers are not political. Nor are they particularly focused on immigration policy. They are professional statisticians interested in overcoming the challenges posed by people who do not want to be counted.” Delving further into Yale’s method of analysis, Rubenstein says: “As newcomers to the illegal alien estimation business, the Yalies eschew methodology long embraced by Pew and other inside-the-beltway think tanks. For example: they do not rely on Census surveys. Their numbers are based on operational data, such as deportations and Border Patrol apprehensions, and demographic data, including death rates and immigration rates.”

Some similarities exist between PRC and the Yale study, Rubenstein observed, saying: “Nevertheless, there are key points of agreement between Yale and Pew. As seen in the graphic, both groups agree that the greatest growth of the undocumented population occurred in the 1990s and early 2000s. Both find that the population size has been relatively stable since 2008.”

Rubenstein also outlines the Reagan era Immigration Reform and Control Act (IRCA). Paying close attention to the dismal statistic attesting to the lackluster enforcement of IRCA nationwide, he goes on to say: “In truth, no President, no matter how dedicated to immigration control, can match the overarching power of the immigration bureaucracy – the folks who actually enforce the law… Or are supposed to. The open secret behind the IRCA amnesty was the unspoken F-word: FRAUD.”

After touching on the infrastructure of the IRCA, the former Immigration and Naturalization Service, and subsequently the Department of Homeland Security, Rubenstein circles back to his overall point, concluding: “There is fraud, and there is fraud. [David] North speaks to the fraud perpetrated by illegal aliens. A different and potentially more dangerous fraud, occurs when government officials understate the size, and abandon efforts to control, the amnestied population. When the Reagan amnesty was first announced, the government estimated that about 1 million illegals would be eligible. The number turned out to be 3 million. Will amnesty for Pew’s 11 million turn out to be amnesty for 33 million? Or: will Yale’s 22 million become amnesty for (GULP) 66 million? Stay tuned.”

Founded in 1972, NPG is a national nonprofit membership organization dedicated to educating the American public and political leaders regarding the damaging effects of population growth. We believe that our nation is already vastly overpopulated in terms of the long-range carrying capacity of its resources and environment. NPG advocates the adoption of its Proposed National Population Policy, with the goal of eventually stabilizing U.S. population at a sustainable level – far lower than today’s. We do not simply identify the problems – we propose solutions. For more information, visit our website at NPG.org, follow us on Facebook @NegativePopulationGrowth or follow us on Twitter @npg_org.

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Craig Lewis
@npg_org
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