NPD: Five Areas of Change for the Retail Industry to Watch in 2022

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Strong retail gains have become almost commonplace over the past year or more of the pandemic, but 2022 is starting with a slightly different tone. The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic continues to alter the cadence of retail sales, making it far less predictable than in the past. This unpredictability makes looking at the year ahead less about planning for emerging trends, and more about preparing for the changes on the horizon.

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“2022 is already shaping up to be another very different year, and the context provided by the retail events and pandemic anniversaries of past three years will be critical to understanding retail’s path in the weeks and months ahead,” said Marshal Cohen, chief retail industry advisor for NPD.

The five critical retail dynamics to watch in 2022 …
1 – The interplay between demand and pricing
2 – Interruptions to consumer financial comfort
3 – Rebalancing experiential behavior and spending
4 – Aftermath of elevated ASPs and pandemic-fueled spending spree
5 – New cadence of shopping with off-course replenishment and upgrade cycles

The first few weeks of 2022 have shown minimal year-over-year revenue growth, according to the latest Retail Early Indicator data from The NPD Group. While retail is up against a period when stimulus payments to consumers boosted spending early in 2021, contributing to softer comps, the accompanying unit sales declines indicate decreased consumer demand levels.

“While retail results appear to be falling short compared to last year, with a widening gap between unit and dollar performance ,we are still seeing sizable growth over more ‘normal’ times before the pandemic began, supported by many industries that support the continuation of pandemic lifestyle,” said Marshal Cohen, chief retail industry advisor for NPD. “2022 is already shaping up to be another very different year, and the context provided by the retail events and pandemic anniversaries of past three years will be critical to understanding retail’s path in the weeks and months ahead.”

Interested in speaking with Marshal for additional insights into what to watch for in retail in 2022? Contact me at janine.marshall@npd.com.

You can also read Marshal’s latest blog, 2022 – A New Era for Retail and Now in Retail:Top Five Retail Trends to Watch in the New Year for additional perspectives on the changes ahead and what they mean for specific industries.

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Janine Marshall
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