R. Greg Brown’s New Book “Risk and Resolution” Is a Compelling Application of the Five-Factor Model to Presidential Foreign Policy Decision-Making

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Recent release “Risk and Resolution” from Page Publishing author R. Greg Brown is a thought-provoking doctoral dissertation on the influence of presidential personality predispositions on military disengagement decisions.

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R. Greg Brown, US Air Force colonel and married father of twin boys who has served as an intelligence officer and strategist for over twenty-five years, holds advanced degrees in aeronautical science, strategic leadership, and military strategy, and has authored a number of distinguished publications in his field, has completed his book “Risk and Resolution”: a scholarly analysis of significant military conflicts and presidential disengagement strategies in the modern era.

Brown writes, “America repeatedly finds itself mired in military interventions long after public buy-in to the national interest has waned. Why is the timely disengagement of military forces so difficult to achieve? Traditional international relations theories diminish the role of the individual leader in favor of the state or international institutions. Behavioral science theories have in recent years experienced a resurgence. However, the dominant behavioral explanation of foreign policy decision-making, prospect theory, while it focuses on how people tend to make decisions under risk, still minimizes the influence of the individual president. Decisions to disengage military forces are presidential decisions, just like the decisions to commit forces to foreign interventions. If we accept this, then it is important to understand if, and if so why, some presidents inherently are more or less acceptant of the risks that disengagement presents.

"This book operationalizes a competing personality-based model of decision-making under risk. Referred to here as the trait-based model, it is assessed using disengagement opportunities in three varied levels of military intervention across four presidencies: humanitarian relief turned nation-building under George H. W. Bush and Bill Clinton in Somalia, compellent air campaigns turned peace-making/keeping in Bosnia and Kosovo under Clinton, and major combat operations turned irregular warfare in Iraq under George W. Bush and Barack Obama. Data for the model predominantly comes from existing presidential personality profiles based on the dominant model of personality theory, the five-factor model, augmented by Myers-Briggs Type Inventory data from public sources. This study aims to explain the roughly 30 percent of cases which defy prospect theory’s predictions and to better explain those cases where prospect theory might heretofore have sufficed. The results suggest specific personality traits do in fact point to presidents’ predispositions toward risk, which in turn help explain their disengagement decisions. This work may be only the second to apply the five-factor model to presidential foreign policy decision-making and is the first to do so in the context of disengagement decisions. Hopefully it will foster further work in both areas.”

Published by New York City-based Page Publishing, R. Greg Brown’s book is a comprehensive dissertation examining the trait-based model of presidential decision-making under risk in military conflicts.

Readers who wish to experience this scholarly work can purchase “Risk and Resolution” at bookstores everywhere, or online at the Apple iTunes store, Amazon, Google Play, or Barnes and Noble.

For additional information or media inquiries, contact Page Publishing at 866-315-2708.

About Page Publishing:
Page Publishing is a traditional New York-based, full-service publishing house that handles all the intricacies involved in publishing its authors’ books, including distribution in the world’s largest retail outlets and royalty generation. Page Publishing knows that authors need to be free to create - not overwhelmed with logistics like eBook conversion, establishing wholesale accounts, insurance, shipping, taxes, and the like. Its roster of accomplished authors and publishing professionals allows writers to leave behind these complex and time-consuming issues to focus on their passion: writing and creating. Learn more at http://www.pagepublishing.com.

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Nichole Hoffman
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