The 4th Annual 'China Districts' Report by Real Estate Foresight Predicts Future Hotspots in the Housing Markets

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Jintang County in Chengdu, Xinzhou District in Wuhan, and Huangpu District in Guangzhou are the top picks in the analysis based on price and volume performance metrics across 170 districts in 20 major cities in China, with the predictions made a year ago proving to be highly accurate.

Specialist analytics and financial technology firm Real Estate Foresight (REF) has published the annual analysis exploring the relative performance of the housing markets in China at a district level, covering over 170 districts in 20 major cities and focused on January-July 2018 price and volume growth metrics* for new home sales markets. The underlying raw data comes from SouFun-CREIS database, from REF’s data partner China Index Academy in Beijing.

TOP PICKS

Jintang County in Chengdu, Xinzhou District in Wuhan, and Huangpu in Guangzhou are among the top picks for ‘relative upside potential’ for the next 1-2 years, based on the metrics and cross-referenced with additional data and qualitative checks from the local sources.

IN HINDSIGHT

The last year’s report, based off the January-July 2017 data, contained a number of predictions for districts that were forecast to see a sustained momentum, future upside, and expected downside. These have proven to be highly accurate over the past year and showcase the power of the data-driven analysis.

Four out of five district picks outperforming on certain volume growth metrics but under-performing on price growth last year, have gone up substantially on price growth in 2018. The slowdown has shown clearly in 2018 in all five districts highlighted last year for the top price growth performance but at substantial sales volume declines. All five districts picked in 2017 for ‘sustained momentum’ have maintained a strong price growth rate in 2018.

“The individual data points may be sketchy, yet the power of the volume of data is that some aggregate patterns can be amazingly predictive as our analysis is showing again this year”, says Robert Ciemniak, Founder-CEO of Real Estate Foresight.

BROADER PATTERNS

There is no district that would be a top performer on both price growth AND volume growth over all other districts, the same case as in the previous reports.

Compared to a year ago, the median of price growth rates has come down to +13% from +23%, but the median of volume growth turned less negative to -6% from around -33%. The strongest price growth (average year-to-date price compared to equivalent period for 2017) was in Qingbaijiang in Chengdu, close to +70%, although with the volumes declining substantially. The dispersion of performance across districts continued with a similar pattern, much wider over the past three years compared to 2015.

“In the current stretched cycle of tightening, the policy has become more and more targeted and differentiated between cities but increasingly also between districts within the cities – that's the next level of differentiation”, added Ciemniak.

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To request a media copy of the 2018 China Districts report or previous reports, please email research(at)realestateforesight.com

*Note that the price growth is measured as changes in the simple year-to-date average price, hence the growth figures may be influenced by changes in the product type sold (e.g. high-end vs lower-end, villas vs high-rise).

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About Real Estate Foresight Ltd

Real Estate Foresight Ltd (REF) is an independent real estate analytics, research and financial technology firm based in Hong Kong and established in 2012. Combining data science with primary research, REF helps developers, investors and fund managers assess opportunities in real estate markets focusing on China. REF can provide truly independent views as the company is not involved in any brokerage, trading or fund business.

Visit http://www.realestateforesight.com for more information, stay connected @reforesight on Twitter.

Contact

Robert Ciemniak | media(at)realestateforesight.com

Source: Real Estate Foresight Ltd

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Robert Ciemniak
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