“What we saw in BLS print today was the COVID-19 pandemic attacking the front lines of the U.S. jobs market – the cannon-fodder in World War I terms – with a first wave of easily discharged low-wage/low-hours workers being swiftly eliminated."
NEW YORK (PRWEB) April 03, 2020
Following the release of the Employment Situation Report for March 2020 by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the U.S. Private Sector Job Quality Index (JQI)® has been revised to a level of 79.27, down by -0.20% from its revised level one month earlier and reflecting a slightly higher proportion - relative to the prior month - of U.S. production and non-supervisory (P&NS) jobs paying less than the mean weekly income of all P&NS jobs, relative to those jobs paying above such mean.
Inasmuch as the reference period for BLS Employment Situation Report data is the pay period ending on the 12th of the month covered by the report the impact of the social and economic lockdowns resulting from the COVID-19 global pandemic are not fully, if even substantially, reflected in the data released today. It should be noted that the JQI may actually stabilize or rise somewhat in coming months, reflecting the eradication of an enormous number of lower paying jobs (down ~666,000 in March), which is not unusual at the beginning of economic recessions. The mean weekly wage income of all P&NS jobs as of the current reading (which reflects the level as of February 2020) was $805.29, a change of +0.52% from its revised level the month prior.
The JQ-Instant™ preliminary read of the 713,000 decrease in all private sector, non-farm payrolls in March 2020 shows that approximately 93.35% of the loss of such private sector jobs was in industry sectors offering P&NS jobs with an average weekly income below the mean weekly income of all P&NS jobs (i.e. “Low Quality Jobs”). The JQ-Instant read shows that the COVID-19 crisis through mid-March caused widespread losses in Low Quality Jobs and had not yet extended deeply into higher quality positions. For example, job losses in the goods producing sectors were 54,000 in March, only 7.6% of all job losses for the month. The duration of the crisis will determine the depth to which job losses are experienced in the higher quality, goods producing and service sectors.
Daniel Alpert, co-creator of the U.S. Private Sector Job Quality Index, said, “What we saw in BLS print today was the COVID-19 pandemic attacking the front lines of the U.S. jobs market – the cannon-fodder in World War I terms – with a first wave of easily discharged low-wage/low-hours workers being swiftly eliminated. Next month we will not only see the next wave, as the crisis moves further into the nation’s heartland, but we will also see how deep into the rear-guard of the economy – higher paying production and service jobs – the crisis has penetrated.”
For an explanatory video on the JQI, please see: http://www.vimeo.com/jqi.
This news release presents data from the most recent JQI reading calculated through the month immediately prior to the month covered by this release. The JQI assesses job quality in the United States by measuring desirable higher-wage/higher-hour jobs versus lower-wage/lower-hour jobs. The JQI offers a near-real time analytical tool to policymakers, researchers and financial market participants with relevance to a variety of trends in the economy at large. The JQI analyzes a representative sample of the economy using production and non-supervisory job (P&NS) data from 180 different industry groups spanning across all 20 super-sectors into which the BLS groups establishments. The principal data utilized is contained in the Current Employment Survey (CES, also often referred to as the establishment survey) P&NS data on average weekly hours, average hourly wage and total employment for each given industry group (seasonally adjusted, in all cases). The JQI is updated on a monthly basis contemporaneously with the release of new CES data from the BLS.
The JQ-Instant reading is for the month covered by this release and has implications for the likely direction of the JQI itself in future months. As the JQI is reported as a three-month rolling average of actual monthly readings, significant imbalances (readings varying from an even distribution between high and low quality jobs) in the JQ-Instant results would suggest future JQI readings moving in the direction of the dominant side of such distribution.
The U.S. Private Sector Job Quality Index (patent pending) is a joint development of the Program on the Law and Regulation of Financial Institutions and Markets at the Jack G. Clarke Institute of Cornell Law School, the University of Missouri Kansas City Department of Economics, the Coalition for a Prosperous America, and the Global Institute for Sustainable Prosperity.
For more information, and to read the full report, visit https://www.jobqualityindex.com/.
©2020 JQI IP Holdings LLC. “Private Sector Job Quality Index” and “JQI” are registered trademarks of JQI IP Holdings LLC. The Private Sector Job Quality Index is patent pending, application number US 62/900,923. Cornell logo and Cornell Law School and Jack G. Clarke Program names and references used with permission.