U.S Job Economy Trending Away From Near-Term Recession in September 2022, According to Turn
Expected holiday hiring set to strengthen job economy through the end of the year
CHICAGO, Sept. 14, 2022 /PRNewswire-PRWeb/ -- The U.S. Job Economy is shifting away from a near-term recession. This is according to the Turn Job Economy Report for September 2022, released ahead of the U.S Bureau of Labor's latest Employment Situation Summary.
In its report, Turn predicts the U.S. unemployment rate will experience a slight increase to a seasonally adjusted 3.76% by the end of September 2022. With fewer hourly workers working 40 hours a week, retention is expected to continue its decline. In addition, Turn forecasts a 46% drop in temporary hiring, in line with hiring phenomena typically seen at the start of or exit from a recession.
Trending Away from Near-Term Recession
The job economy is projected to stay strong through the end of 2022 on the strength of expected U.S. holiday hiring increases among low- and semi-skilled jobs.
This forecast comes despite likely impacts on skilled labor hiring once Federal Reserve policies to slow down the economy get underway in 2023. Skilled hiring is projected to decline by 12% through the end of September 2022, with 96% of skilled jobs showing 53% fewer positions open in August than in January 2022.
Hourly workers remain underutilized as companies cut back on temporary hiring
Turn surveyed over 3,000 hourly workers in August 2022 and found 52% are now working less than 40 hours a week, up from 43% in February 2022. This comes despite 2.7 open jobs per available hourly worker in August 2022.
In fact, temporary hiring has declined 48% in the past six months. This is a sign of a strong job economy, as companies feel comfortable taking on long-term employment costs. The largest reductions in temporary hiring can be seen in Educational Services (down 31.6%), Professional & Scientific companies (24.6%) and across Administrative & Support jobs (5.6%).
Hourly wages to continue increasing ahead of peak hiring season
With peak hiring season kicking off in September, Turn is predicting the 2022 holiday hiring to exceed last year's figure of 15.6 million workers hired, with a spend of $18.7B. So, while companies, on average, are reducing temporary hiring by 10.6% MoM, hourly wages remain 2.5% higher.
Turn predicts a 2.6% increase through September 2022 for newly opened or replacement positions. This remains within the nationwide wage increase of 15.5% over the past 12 months, revealed by Turn's analysis of 114.8 million salary data points.
With 78% of hourly workers surveyed not receiving a pay increase within the last 3 months and 61% of them looking for a new position, wage inflation is expected to rise.
The Turn Job Economy Report
Turn's AI-driven platform tracks 94% of working Americans and employment data from 1.1 million companies spread across more than 36,000 locations in the U.S. It also provides daily analysis of all recruitment activities of more than 525,000 job advertisers.
"With the U.S. economy poised to shift away from near-term recession and companies gearing up for peak holiday hiring season, Turn enables autonomous hiring at scale and helps high-volume employers improve the talent quality of their candidates," said Rahier Rahman, founder and CEO of Turn.
Turn is an innovative talent acquisition company whose products are revolutionizing contingent workforce recruitment by dramatically speeding the hiring process and greatly reducing cost through autonomous data-driven sourcing and screening. Using Advise, businesses can decrease the time to fill jobs by 73% and reduce the cost per hire by 81%.
Read more about Turn's Job Economy Predictions.
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SOURCE Turn
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